Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Science Rendezvous > 2009 Posters
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Managing Climate Uncertainties

Marilyn Averill¹

Uncertainties run rampant throughout climate change. While scientific uncertainty receives the bulk of attention, uncertainty permeates the economic, social, and political realities of climate change. Some uncertainties are inherent, while others may be reduced through more research, new technologies, more careful language, or other strategies. Uncertainties complicate the identification of solutions and negotiation of agreements, partly because people use and manipulate uncertainties to support their own agendas, often using uncertainty to cloak the diverse values and interests that lie at the heart of debates over climate policy. This poster is part of a larger study that considers sources of climate uncertainties; their ethical, policy, and other implications; and how various players use and manage uncertainties.

Policy makers can improve decisions about how to act in the face of uncertainty if they understand the nature of the uncertainties relating to various policy alternatives. They need to know which uncertainties are reducible and what it will take to reduce uncertainties. Climate scientists often are expected to produce work that is policy relevant without being policy prescriptive. The way that uncertainties are characterized and disaggregated can affect the degree to which climate science provides useful information for debates about climate ethics and climate policy.

This poster focuses on uncertainties in climate science, explains why understanding such uncertainties matters to decision makers, outlines some procedural and distributive ethical implications of managing uncertainties, and provides recommendations for improvements in disaggregating and characterizing uncertainties in scientific reports to better support debate on important climate policy issues. Better management of climate uncertainties can improve perceptions of the salience, credibility, and legitimacy as well as the understanding of climate science, can illuminate policy alternatives, and can help decision makers to concentrate on the different values and interests at the core of climate policy debates.

1. Ph.D. Candidate, ENVS
Center for Science and Technology Policy Research