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Arctic Sea Ice in 2007: A Year to Remember Julienne Stroeve, Sheldon Drobot, Shari Gearheard, Marika Holland, James Maslanik, Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, and Mark Serreze In summer 2007, the Arctic sea ice extent shrank by more than one and a half million sq-km. Compared to sea ice conditions in the 1950s to 1970s, this represents a 50% reduction in the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice at the end of the melt season. The cause for the decline appears to be largely driven by a thin ice pack that decayed rapidly in response to the anomalously warm, sunny and windy summer. Global climate models have long predicted complete disappearance of the Arctic summer sea ice cover if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to increase at the rates they presently are. In addition, these models reveal that this transition towards a seasonally ice free Arctic state may occur rather abruptly. Analysis of conditions in 2007 suggests the Arctic may be on the verge of fundamental transition towards a seasonal ice cover. |