Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

Changes in synoptic weather patterns and Greenland precipitation in the 20th and 21st centuries. Part 2: Attribution of the predicted change in Greenland precipitation during the 21st century

K. Schuenemann and J.J. Cassano

2010, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D05108, doi:10.1029/2009JD011706.

Using a 3-model ensemble and self-organizing maps (SOMs), predictions of increasing Greenland precipitation over the 21st century are analyzed. The 3-model ensemble consists of the CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63), MIROC3.2(hires), and MPI-ECHAM5, which are all Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report and were chosen due to their ability to best reproduce North Atlantic surface synoptic climatology and Greenland precipitation from ERA-40. Daily sea-level pressure and precipitation data from model simulations for years 1961-1999, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100 are compared, where future simulations are based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Results indicate that the North Atlantic storm track is predicted to shift northward through the 21st century and Greenland precipitation is predicted to increase from 35.8 cm yr-1 to 45.8 cm yr-1 by the end of the 21st century, a 27.8% increase. The precipitation change is attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics during the future time periods. The northward shift in storm track results in less precipitation to be produced dynamically over the southeast coast of Greenland, but precipitation over the remainder of the ice sheet to increase, with largest increases over the southwest coast of Greenland and the eastern region. Thermodynamic changes, however, dominate the future precipitation changes, accounting for 82.5% of the total change. This is likely due to an increase in precipitable water in the atmosphere in response to rising temperatures. Changes in sea ice are also thought to contribute to this change.