|
Scientific Assessments
GOAL: Identify and characterize regional vulnerabilities to climate variability and change for use by Intermountain water-resource decision makers.
Evaluate Front Range water needs to 2040.
Over the past year significant progress has been made in our efforts to model and evaluate the future water needs of Front Range water users. The SPRAT workgroup continued existing efforts with the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District aimed at improving and applying the model to questions outside of those at the center of WWA's research focus. Recently a limited version of the model was distributed so that the NCWCD could begin exploring and utilizing the model on their own. In addition to our work with the NCWCD, model results, together with newly revised model documentation, were presented to numerous user groups throughout the Front Range. Output from the model suggests that significant water shortages can be expected without additional infrastructure/policy changes beyond those already being developed. Moreover, they demonstrate that the impact of future growth will vary largely by region and user type (e.g. agricultural users versus M&I users). These results, and others, were distributed to water managers throughout the Southwest via a written report published in Intermountain West Climate Summary and represented a chapter in the completed dissertation of Dr. Christopher Goemans.
Analyze Municipal Response to 2002 drought.
Three WWA researchers wrote a paper entitled "Use and effectiveness of municipal water restrictions during drought in Colorado." This paper (PDF) studied how eight different municipal water providers handled the drought during 2002. Different strategies from voluntary to mandatory restrictions were utilized. Mandatory restrictions were found to reduce demand from 18 to 56% while voluntary restrictions reduced demand from 4 to 12%.
WWA also produced a white paper, "Use of Climate Information in Municipal Drought Planning in Colorado." Twenty-nine Colorado water providers were surveyed to understand how they use climate information in their planning efforts. The reports list the historical/current (streamflows, snowpack, etc) and forecasted (temperature and preciptation) indicators used by all providers. The types and methods of using various drought triggers are also discussed. The report was provided to all 29 entities and is available on the WWA web site.
Investigate large water providers' vulnerabilities and climate products needs.
The purpose of this project is to identify water user needs for climate products (information and forecasts); to match these needs to WWA and NOAA climate research or identify new research areas; and to continue dialogue between these managers and WWA researchers. This year we have collected information about the uses and climate needs of six water providers which supply water to about 63% of the population on the Colorado Front Range and have completed interviews and draft report chapters for three of the six. We have been coordinating this work with studies on the South Platte Basin. Based on work in progress, Eric Ray gave a talk co-authored by Jessica Lowrey at the NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment workshop in Tucson, AZ in March 2006. Preliminary findings include: 1) There is little use of seasonal forecasts, but climate variability is reflected in annual and longer-term planning through the use of historic records; 2) the cities studied have over their history adopted strategies to meet water needs, including increasing efficiency, and these practices show continual innovation and adoption of new technologies and practices; 3) the project has identified needs for climate products in annual operations, but also finds significant needs for climate knowledge in longer-term planning, for example to assess the potential for systems to cope in the future with drought, and interest in a range of potential climate change scenarios, droughts that have occurred outside the instrumental record. The research team plans to complete interviews this fall and have a full draft report by the end of the year.
Evaluate agricultural to drought.
Preliminary analysis of the quantity of agricultural water available for transfer to municipal uses was completed during the last year. Results were presented at the 2005 University Council on Water Resources annual conference, and suggest that much less agricultural water is available to meet future municipal demands than previously anticipated.
Evaluate agricultural use of climate forecasts.
This project was cancelled before inception due to concerns about NOAA involvement with agricultural use of climate products.
Investigate temperature and snow melt relationship in Colorado's front range.
Using the PRISM precipitation and temperature dataset, researchers investigated how temperature and precipitation have changed during the last 50 years in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Annual precipitation was shown to have increased during the entire 50-year period both in winter and summer. Temperatures, both minimum and maximum, have increased over the last 50 years, with minimums showing larger increases. Over the last 25 years the warming trend has increased in all seasons and at all elevations. Results of this research were presented at the MtnClim conference in the fall of 2005.
In the fall of 2005 a number of temperature sensors were placed in the University of Colorado Niwot Ridge Research area from approximately 10,000 feet to 12,000 feet to understand snow melt and temperature dynamics. The sensors were collected in June of 2006 and the data in now undergoing analysis.
|
Climate Products
GOAL: Develop information, products and processes to assist water resource decision makers throughout the Intermountain West.
Improve Climate Services Clearinghouse Web Site.
The Climate Services Clearinghouse is an online, searchable database of all web-based products relating to climate. The web site was updated and improved during the last year and is now at Version 2. It now contains 355 'temporal' resources, 429 'spatial resources,' 429 'organizational resources,' 419 resources by climate trend or characteristic, and 430 resources sorted by 'type of product.' The PI on this project has been in discussion with several operational NOAA entities about product turnover.
Improve NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center forecasts.
WWA researchers working with Colorado Basin River Forecast Center personnel jointly authored several publications that appeared in 2005.
Produce monthly intermountain climate summary.
The Western Water Assessment continues to produce our Intermountain West Climate Summary.
Provide Web-based seasonal forecasts for Colorado Drought Task Force.
The "Colorado and Interior Southwest Forecasts" are seasonal forecasts designed to complement the official CPC temperature and precipation forecasts. New for this year is the publication of the skill of these forecasts. The principal investigator on this effort collaborates with CPC to add his knowledge to the official NOAA forecasts. This forecast is used by the Colorado Drought Task Force. A map of a sites used in reconstructions is here. Selected chronologies are available at the International Tree-Ring data bank are here.
Provide dendrohydrological datasets.
Several new chronologies were collected, adding to the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, a publicly available collection of tree-ring information. These chronologies included those collected for the purpose of reconstructing Colorado River streamflow at Lee's Ferry.
Climate and Water Affairs
GOAL: Increase decision makers' level of knowledge about climate science so they can become better consumers and demanders of climate products and assessments, and help WWA set its research agenda.
Sponsor Conference on Colorado River Compact.
Along with the University of Colorado Law School, the Western Water Assessment sponsored a three-day conference on Climate Change. This conference was attended by approximately 200 people from thoughout the country, and featured numerous internationally recognized speakers on the topic. WWA personnel made presentations at the conference.
Sponsor Climate and Water Affairs seminar series.
WWA sponsored a seminar series on key water and climate issues in the West. Attorney Larry MacDonnell gave a presentation on Colorado River policy issues, Margaret Matter on Colorado River gages, Bill Karsell of the USBR on the Water - Energy Nexus, Steve Hunter of the USBR on Weather Modification in the Colorado River Basin, and Ric Brown of the CWCB on the State Water Supply Initiative.
Maintain dendrohydrological web site.
The TreeFlow web site is designed to be a resource for water managers. In addition to providing access to data, there is also a significant education component to the site. Site visitors can receive a tutorial on how streamflow reconstructions are made from tree rings, issues surrounding the quality of the reconstructions, and are shown several reconstructions.
Maintain Western Water Assessment web site.
The Western Water Assessment web site was enhanced during the last year by the additional of a Colorado River specific series of pages on law, policy, river management and use, climate and drought, climate change, and environment and endangered species. In addition, the site is home to the proceedings of our 2005 conference on the Colorado River Compact. Several historically important documents were scanned for the site, including the minutes of the 1922 Compact negotiations. Material from the WWA symposium of Decision Support Activities for Climate Change is also now on the site.
|
216 UCB