Future Mw>8
earthquakes in the Himalaya: implications from the 26 Dec 2004 Mw=9.0
earthquake on India's eastern plate margin
Roger Bilham and Kali Wallace
CIRES and Geological Sciences, University
of Colorado
Boulder CO 80309-0399
Abstract
The
inventory of historical Himalayan earthquakes has grown substantially in the
past decade. Some well-known earthquakes have been downgraded in magnitude, or their
locations shifted, leading to the conclusion that only 30% of the Himalaya have
slipped in the past three centuries. Newly discovered earthquakes occurring in
the 10th to 16th centuries may have been much larger than recent events; some
of these resulted in ruptures of the frontal thrusts of the Himalaya that did
not accompany earthquakes of the past two centuries.
The following observations suggest that the Kangra region, hitherto
considered a region relatively safe, cannot be excluded from hosting an
imminent major earthquake:
1. The Mw=7.8 1905 Kangra
earthquake with a slip of probably less than 4 m and a rupture area of
approximately 100x55 km2 incompletely released the 9 m of cumulative
plate boundary convergence inferred to have developed since c. 1400, when a
great frontal thrust earthquake ruptured the western Himalaya nearby.
2. The 1833 Mw7.7 and 1934
Nepal Mw8.2 earthquakes provide a precedent for contiguous and/or overlapping
Himalayan rupture, after an interval of only 101 years.
3. The 2004 Sumatra/Nicobar/Andaman
earthquake indicates that great ruptures can re-rupture through or past the
rupture zones of relatively recent major plate boundary earthquakes.
Thus,
the Kangra region, like other parts of the Himalaya, must now be considered
vulnerable to a future large earthquake, despite having experienced one 100
years ago.
This reasoning, extended across the
Himalaya from the eastern Indian plate boundary in Myanmar to the
western plate boundary through Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Baluchistan, reveals
a dozen examples of regions that could experience a future Mw>8
earthquake. Potentially the most
dangerous of these is the so-called Central Himalayan Gap whose rupture in 1505
may have occurred as a 600-km-long rupture, similar to the tsunamigenic initial
phase of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Its re-rupture would be catastrophic. The
recent Mw=9 Sumatra/Andaman earthquake suggests that we would not be serving
society well by viewing seismic risk too conservatively.
Introduction
It
is fitting that one hundred years after the most devastating of India's
Himalayan earthquakes, the 4 April 1905 Mw=7.8 Kangra earthquake, the
seismological community should review progress in understanding earthquakes in
the past century, and the perceptions of the potential for future damaging
earthquakes in the Himalaya. This
review is particularly relevant, coming as it does a few months after the 26
December 2004 Mw=9 earthquake that ruptured approximately half of India's
eastern plate boundary, from northern Sumatra, through the Nicobar Islands, to
the northernmost islets of the Andamans.
Despite
a significant difference in their magnitudes, the Kangra 1905 and
Sumatra/Andaman 2004 earthquakes have much in common socially and
scientifically. They both took society by surprise, rendering hundreds of
thousands homeless, and tens of thousands dead, accompanied by massive local
economic losses. The severity and impact of each earthquake was not anticipated
by the scientific community, despite the occurrence of a recent severe earthquake that should
have alerted them to the potential consequences of a future event. (The Kangra earthquake followed the
mid-plate 1897 Mw=8 Shillong earthquake by seven years; the Sumatra/Andaman
earthquake followed the M=7.8 Bhuj mid-plate earthquake by 3 years). Finally,
in neither location was there any precedent for an earthquake of such severity
in India's history.
Figure
1 Epicentral location of the
≈100-km-long Kangra 1905 earthquake on the 2000-km-long Himalayan arc, and the rupture zone of the 1200-km-long
2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.
Representative MSK intensity contours (III, IV, and VII) are shown for
the 1905 event. The 2004 intensity III zone included most of east and SE India,
but MSK V was experienced only on the mainland nearest the Andamans. Intensities attained or exceeded MSK
VIII only in the epicentral tracts in each earthquake.
This
threefold comparison is worrisome because seismologists, geologists,
tectonophysicists and earthquake engineers have learned much in the intervening
century about the earthquake process.
Instruments, computational abilities and manpower focused on
seismological research have increased enormously. We should not have been surprised by the location and size
of the 2004 earthquake, and we should not have been surprised by the size of
the tsunami, something that a competent graduate student could have estimated
within minutes by making reasonable assumptions. Why was no attempt made by
scientists to consider the consequences of slip on all parts of India's plate
boundary, to consider worst case scenarios, or to attempt to communicate with
political leadership their understanding of potential future earthquake related
disasters?
Answers
to these questions are outside the scope of this communication, but perhaps
they will be considered during the planned conference. Clearly the scientific community
is not indifferent to future seismic risk, for that is the reason that it
justifies, at least partially, its activities. However, there is often a gulf between what a scientist
knows may be possible and what a scientist believes should be done with this
information.
Perhaps
the most important issue now faced by seismologists is the realization that
future great earthquakes in the Himalaya could have a much greater impact on
people than the recent tsunami.
The population of the Ganga basin is larger than at any time in history,
and a future earthquake could equal the 2004 event in magnitude, as we explain
in this article. What should be
our response to this knowledge? A
first hurdle is to achieve a consensus amongst the scientific community on the
inevitability of future great Himalayan earthquakes. A second might be to
accept that whatever we may dispute concerning the timing, frequency, or severity of these future
earthquakes, our findings all point to the need strengthen dwellings in epicentral
regions. A third might be the
realization that prevention of damage may in fact be less expensive than the
enormous cost of reconstruction following these inevitable future earthquakes.
The
Kangra earthquake – not a great earthquake.
A
great earthquake is defined to be one where Mw≥8. For more than 90 years the
Kangra earthquake of 5 April 1905 was mistakenly thought to be a great
earthquake. This misinterpretation was due largely to Charles Richter rounding
up Beno Gutenberg's handwritten magnitude-calculation (M=7.8) to the nearest
integer, and partly due to the area of high-intensity shaking (Middlemiss et
al., 1910) that extended almost 300 km along the arc, which suggested an
earthquake with a M>8 magnitude. The magnitude of the Kangra earthquake is
believed now to be Ms=7.8 (Ambraseys and Bilham, 1998; Ambraseys, 2000,
Ambraseys & Douglas, 2004).
The
combination of an erroneously high magnitude and a large Rossi-Forel intensity
VIII area initially favored the notion that 300 km of the Himalayan plate
boundary had slipped in a great earthquake, rendering this segment of the
Himalaya an unlikely setting for a imminent future great earthquake (Seeber and
Armbruster, 1981). However, the downward revised magnitude suggests that
further rupture may yet occur in this region. In reducing the magnitude of the
earthquake from Ms=8 to Ms=7.8, (a fairly modest decrement typically within the
uncertainties in magnitude determination), either the area of the rupture, or
the amount of slip must be halved from inferred values. Either the rupture did
not span width of the Himalaya, the rupture length was shorter than 300 km, or
it slipped less than hitherto thought, or a combination of these. As a result
of this seemingly minor error, the conclusions of numerous oft-cited articles
require revision, and the
motivation of others can be shown to be without foundation.
Numerous
studies in the past two decades report attempts to constrain slip at the
supposed eastern end of the rupture, based on the availability of leveling data
that appear to show significant (15 cm) coseismic uplift at Dehra Dun. The data were acquired immediately
after the earthquake and were compared with data
obtained one year before the earthquake between Dehra Dun and Mousoorie, and 25
years before the earthquake between Dehra Dun and Saharanpur (Longe, 1907; Burrard, 1906, 1909, 1910a,b&c; Walker
1863). The
starting premises in these analyses was
that the data were error free and that the Kangra rupture had approached, or
passed beyond, Dehra Dun.
A
critical review of the raw leveling data show that they contain
incontrovertible correlations between height-change and elevation that render
them most untrustworthy (Bilham, 2001). The correlations appear to be caused by
unsuspected systematic errors related to rod-errors, and/or line-slope
refraction errors. Previous investigations had noticed some of this correlation
(DeGraaff Huner, 1910, Angus-Leppan, 1984; Chander 1988;1989, Gahalaut and
Chander, 1988) but had not noted the remarkable coincidence that the point that
rose highest in the 1905 earthquake was the origin for all local surveys,
located at the headquarters of the Survey of India, Dehra Dun. Nor had these investigators noted that
height changes decreased almost monotonically with distance from this point, or
that the Survey of India had conducted a measurement of horizontal angles in
the Dehra Dun region and found no angular changes following the earthquake
(Burrard, 1906; Eccles, 1907,1908). Once systematic vertical errors in the
leveling data are taken into account, no significant vertical deformation
remains.
The
absence of geodetic confirmation for a rupture in the Dehra Dun region,
however, conflicts with the curiously high intensities reported by Middlemiss
(1910) in that region. An apparent
dip in intensities between the two extremes, however, suggested that slip in
the rupture may have been small in the region between Dehra Dun and Kangra, and
several studies questioned, and confirmed, the reality of these low intervening intensities (Seeber and
Armbruster, 1981; Molnar , 1987). A re-evaluation of felt intensities by
Ambraseys and Douglas (2004) using the MSK intensity scale confirmed that
although Middlemiss' Rossi-Forel contours were 1 to 1.5 intensity units too
large near the epicenter, a region of high intensities remained near Dehra Dun
with intensities falling as low as MSK V in the region between Dehra Dun and
Kangra.
The
mystery of the anomalously high intensities near Dehra Dun in 1905 was resolved
by predicting shaking intensities generated by an inferred rupture near Kangra
(see next section) and subtracting these intensities from newly calibrated MSK
intensities (Hough et al, 2005a).
The residual intensities revealed, among other things, a broad region of
high intensities that were not confined to the Ganga plain but were partially
distributed in the Himalayan foothills near and SE of Dehra Dun. The region of anomalous intensities
were interpreted as a triggered M>7 earthquake, probably at 30-40 km depth
in the Indian plate. The Udaypur
1988 earthquake is an example of the type of deep earthquake that may have been
triggered by the Kangra earthquake. Deep earthquakes near the Himalayan front
are related to flexural bending of the Indian plate.
Previous investigators had speculated
that the Dehra Dun 1905 intensity anomaly was caused by a triggered earthquake
(Chander, 1988), but independent support appeared unlikely to be
forthcoming. A careful search
through surviving European seismograms of the Kangra earthquake, however,
confirmed seismic phases in the coda of the primary shock that are likely to
have originated from this triggered earthquake (Hough et al, 2005a,b).
Fig. 2 Geodetic GTS control points (∆) and
newly-evaluated MSK Intensities (Ambraseys & Douglas, 2004), Arrows are
representative 14±1 mm/yr GPS convergence vectors from Banerjee and Bürgmann
(2002). GPS measurements in 2001 (Wallace et al, 2005) provide constraints on
the slip, and SE and NW extent of the 1905 rupture (shaded). Its other
parameters are not well constrained but approximate the isoseismal contour
enclosing MSK VIII. Its NE margin corresponds to the inferred locking line
(dashed) that follows the 3.5 km elevation contour (Avouac, 2003), and
microseismicity that marks the transition between episodic seismicity to creep
of the Indian plate beneath Tibet. Its SW margin follows the strike of the
Jawalmucki thrust. Black circles
M>5 earthquakes. Dotted line links investigative trenches (open circles)
that have sampled the c. 1400AD rupture.
The length of the rupture extends from 76.7°E and 79.7°E , an arc
distance >400 km (Kumar et al, 2001;2004), that includes the 1803 rupture (Ambraseys and Douglas,
2004).
Geodetic
data from the Kangra region 1846-2001
The
earliest of the several scientific misjudgments associated with the Kangra
earthquake was inadvertently introduced by Surveyor General Sir Sydney Burrard,
who, following his discovery that no deformation had occurred near Dehra Dun
during the earthquake, concluded that there was consequently no cartographic
value to measuring trigonometrical points near the Kangra epicenter (Burrard,
1906). This decision was made
despite his discovery of >3 m displacements in the epicentral region of the
1897 Shillong earthquake only 7
years previously. Had he
authorized a Kangra re-survey he may well have discovered horizontal
displacements exceeding 4 m within
the primary and secondary triangulation networks then in place above the Kangra
rupture zone, and this in turn would have changed our understanding of this
important (if not quite "great") earthquake.
As
a result of Burrard's decision, trigonometrical points near Kangra were never
re-measured by the Survey of India, or at least the results of their
re-measurement have never been reported or published. Almost certainly the points were not measured before
mid-century Independence, but it is equally certain that the points have been
carefully maintained by the Survey of India and used in local surveys, for many
of them were found intact or recently repaired. Some crucial primary points
have been lost, and data from the secondary triangulation north of the primary
network have been unavailable for scientific study. Even now we could learn much concerning the mechanism of the
Kangra earthquake were these data made available.
To
test this assertion, a subset of these primary triangulation points in the
Kangra region was selected for GPS re-occupation in a search for deformation
attributable to the Kangra earthquake.
The observed relative displacements in the Kangra region permit us to
exclude the possibility that slip in the Kangra earthquake exceeded 7m and that
its rupture zone did not exceed 150 km (Wallace et al, 2005). The preferred rupture width (100 km)
and down-dip width (55 km) requires slip of ≈4 m on a rupture terminating in
the subsurface near the Jawalmucki thrust. The constraints are not strong, but
they confirm that rupture did not extend to the frontal thrusts of the
Himalaya, a conclusion consistent with the findings of geologists in 1905, who
found no evidence for surface rupture.
The
150-year interval between triangulation and GPS remeasurement is unsatisfactory
for providing a unique constraint of the Kangra rupture parameters since it
includes a substantial period of interseismic deformation. However, the cumulative constraint on
coseismic slip, afterslip and interseismic strain at these longitudes is
important for estimating the future seismic potential of the region. For
example, we can be certain that no significant interseismic creep has occurred in the foothills SW of Kangra in the
past 150 years; it is probable that all slip on the foothill faults occurs
during earthquakes.
Seismic
deficit in the Himalaya.
Figure
3 illustrates all known
earthquakes along the Himalayan arc between 1200 and the present from several
sources.. The rupture dimensions and locations of most of these earthquakes are
estimated from Ambraseys and Douglas (2004) who derive an empirical
relationship between Ms and seismic moment Mo for northern India and provide
citations to source materials.
log M0=16.0+1.5Ms (M0
in units of dyne cm=10-7 Nm) [1]
from which they calculate Mw =2/3logM0 -10.63 (Hanks and Kanamori, (1994).
The northerly limit to rupture is selected to be the transition from
locked to stable sliding of the Indian plate characterised by seismicity,
uplift and a maximum in the geodetic convergence rate. Knowing M0 and the rupture
width of the rupture provides an estimate of the rupture length assuming typical slip vs. length scaling (Wells
and Coppersmith, 1994), or for long ruptures from intensity data directly.
Locations are inferred from regions of maximum damage (Intensity>VIII) and
from instrumental determinations of epicenter.
Figure 3 Time distance graph of Himalayan
ruptures vs. time. The location
and date constraints for an inferred earthquake in 1400 (7-26m of slip) between
Kumaon toward Dehra Dun are indicated by 2 sigma age ranges (Kumar et al.,
2004. Inferred large ruptures are enclosed. There is evidence for at least one large rupture c.1200 AD
in eastern Nepal (Rockwell, personal communication, 2002) which may correspond
to a prolonged mainshock-aftershock sequence in 1255 recorded in
Kathmandu. The 1200 and 1400
ruptures resulted in >8 m of slip on the frontal faults of the Himalaya.
The
largest precisely dated historical rupture occurred in the central Himalayan
Gap (Khatttri, 1987) in June 1505, a month after a large earthquake in NE
Afghanistan, and 50 years before a major earthquake in Kashmir (Ambraseys and
Jackson, 2000). The 400-500 km
long inferred rupture associated with the 1505 earthquake was assigned from
intensity data to have a magnitude of 8.2 (Ambraseys and Douglas, 1505);
however, its rupture, according to scaling laws, may have been larger. The c.1400
(Wesnowsky et al., 1999; Kumar et al, 2001) and c.1200 earthquakes (eastern
Nepal) known from trench investigations of the Himalayan frontal faults may
also have been 8.2<Mw<8.7 earthquakes, larger than either the 1905 Kangra
or the Bihar/Nepal 1934 ruptures.
One
important conclusion derived from this evolving time-space diagram of Himalayan
earthquakes is that nowhere, with the possible exception of the Kumaon region,
do we see the repeat of a great earthquake in Himalayan history. This suggests that the recurrence
interval for great Himalayan earthquakes is possibly 500-900 years. Given a
geodetic convergence rate in the Himalaya of 14-19 mm/year, this implies that
when such earthquakes occur they release at least 8 m and possibly as much as
16 m of slip on the frontal faults.
That none of the earthquakes of the past two centuries have produced
slip on the frontal faults suggests that they may have been abnormally small
events.
Figure 3b. Symbols
are MSK intensity VIII or greater reports data for recent earthquakes
(Ambraseys and Douglas, 2004), and possible locations for the 1505 and 1555
earthquakes based on Ambraseys and Jackson, (2001). Although intensity data can
be invoked to justify the 500 km length of the 1505 rupture, the data from 1555
are limited to the Kashmir valley, and the only evidence of its possible
magnitude comes from the numerous aftershocks reported in historical sources.
The double arrow shows the along arc coverage of five trenches that show
evidence for rupture circa 1400 (Kumar et al., 2004) The 1803 earthquake could have ruptured a longer length of
the arc toward Kangra, but except for the possible rupture in 1555 no
historical, or geological data yet constrains earthquakes to the west.
Excavations of the Taxila archaeological site near Islamabad suggest that
destructive earthquakes occurred duuring the period of its occupation.
A
significant finding (Figure 3b) is that the western 1200 km of the Himalaya
appears to have slipped between
1400 and 1555. A gap remains between the Kangra epicenter and Kashmir that may
have been filled by the 1555 Kashmir earthquake but data for this event are
limited in their spatial coverage (Ambraseys and Jackson, 2001). The length of
the 1400 rupture is known from five sites and abuts, or slightly overlaps, the
inferred 1505 rupture. The M=8.2 1803 earthquake is located near the
intersection of these two earthquakes and appears to have re-ruptured the
eastern 150 km of the 1400 rupture,
If so this represents a 400 year return period for M≈8 earthquakes here.
Of
interest for characterising future slip in the Himalaya are the 1833
(Mw=7.7) and 1934 (Mw=8.1)
earthquakes that occurred in Nepal.
These earthquakes were either contiguous or overlapping events separated
by a century, and provide a pattern that must be considered in evaluating
seismic hazards in the Kangra region. The 1833 earthquake consisted of three
distinct shocks within 5 hours (Bilham, 1995), and the location of these are
not well constrained. Intensities
suggest that the largest of these events occurred in the northern part of the
Himalaya and, like neither of the Kangra earthquakes (two earthquakes in 15
minutes), did not rupture to the southern foothills. If the 1833 Nepal earthquake is analogous to the 1905 Mw=7.8
Kangra earthquake it is conceivable that a larger earthquake could occur in or
near the Kangra region at any time.
Slip
deficit in the Himalaya
The
convergence rate across the Himalaya has been reported by several investigators
using GPS methods. The rate was initially reported as 18-20 mm/year (Bilham et
al., 1977) from 5 years of data,
consistent with geological rates of 20±3 mm/year inferred from the
deformation near the frontal thrusts of the central Himalaya (Lave and Avouac,
2000). Subsequently Jouanne et al., (1999) and Wang et al., (2001) reported rates of 16-18 mm/year
across the central Himalaya. and although rates as low as 14±1 mm/year are
reported from the west by Banerjee and Bürgmann, (2001), this low rate conflicts
with the 18.8±3 mm/year rate published by Jade et al., (2004) from
approximately the same region. One reason for the scatter in the convergence
rates may be the paucity of regularly observed GPS sites in southern Tibet.
Thus
although the rate may be as low as 14 mm/year the average rate appears to be at
least 16 mm/year and possibly close to the 20 mm/year required by geological
data. This slip is eventually
manifest as seismic or aseismic slip of the basal faults beneath the Himalaya. Geodetic data suggests that aseismic
slip at present is negligible; hence the slip must occur seismically.
A measure of seismic slip along an entire plate boundary can be obtained by summing the slip that occurs in every earthquake and by dividing this sum by the total time over which the summation was taken (Brune,1968). Slip in an earthquake can be calculated when its seismic moment is known.
Mo=µ*slip*L*W
where µ=3.3*1011 dyne cm-2 [2]
For the entire Himalayan plate
boundary length LH, and width WH, slipping at velocity vH mm/yr, the sum of the seismic moments of all the earthquakes within
a given time t (in years) is
SMo =µ*vH*Lh*Wh*t dyne-cm [3]
from
which the convergence velocity may be estimated.
v= SMo/µLhWht cm/yr (for L and w in cm) [4]
The area of the
plate boundary is calculated directly from the separation of the smoothed
location of the 3.5 km contour and the smoothed location of the 200 m contour
along the Himalaya between the epicenter of the 1950 Assam and the Kunar 1842
earthquakes. The slip rate derived from [4] assumes that the duration of time for which
earthquakes are available greatly exceeds the interval between repeating
earthquakes on the plate boundary, i.e. the minimum condition is that the
earthquake cycle is much shorter than the history of available
earthquakes. For the
Himalaya this minimum condition is not met; for only one of the great
earthquakes in the past 500 years do we know of a preceding great earthquake
with similar rupture location and even this event (in 1803) had a different inferred rupture area. Hence we
are likely to underestimate the slip rate, but the amount by which we do this
gives us an idea of the number of earthquakes that are either missing from the
historical record or are yet to happen in the future.
Figure 4. Slip rates estimated from seismic
moment release since 1500 (Bilham and Ambraseys, 2004) based on all known
historical earthquakes (dark shading), with an estimated increase to account
for missing events (light grey shading- but see Ambraseys and Sharma,
1999). The top dashed line is the
convergence rate inferred from geodetic (14-18 mm/year) and geological data (20
mm/year, Avouac, 2003). The slip
deficit is equivalent to two, or possibly as many as four, M=8.6 earthquakes.
Figure
4 illustrates a plot of the past 250 years of velocity vs. time estimated from [4]. Large earthquakes instantaneously raise the
apparent Himalayan convergence rate; in the absence of (all) earthquakes, the
apparent convergence rate decays to zero.
To account for missing slip represented by the numerous small earthquakes
not documented in the historical earthquake record we increase the numerical
estimate by 30% (Ambraseys
and Sharma, 1999). Despite this precaution, the
convergence rate estimated from the cumulative seismic moment in the Himalaya
(7 mm/year) falls far below the rates inferred from GPS measurements across the
arc (≈18 mm/year). The missing
slip is equivalent to four Mw=8.6 earthquakes (Bilham and Ambraseys, 2004).
The
Sumatra/Andaman earthquake
The
26 December 2004 Sumatra/Andaman earthquake permitted 1200 km of the
Indo/Andaman plate boundary to slip in a single rupture with a duration of
approximately 9 minutes. Of interest to the present discussion is that it
traversed, or bypassed, the 1847
(Hochstetterr, 1866), 1881 and 1941 rupture zones with little apparent regard
for the principles of seismic gap theory. Though the rupture zones of these
previous 7.5<Mw<8 earthquakes did not arrest the northward propagation
from the mainshock, they appear to have slowed it. In the first 3 minutes the rupture propagated approximately
650 km at 2.5 km/s, generating the coherent wavefront of the damaging tsunami
and high intensity shaking in the epicentral region. North of the Nicobar Islands it propagated a further 550 km
northward more slowly, resulting in relatively low perceived intensities and a
complex low amplitude tsunami.
Fig. 5. The Sumatra/Andaman/ Nicobar rupture, showing the 1847, 1861,
1881 and 1941 inferred rupture zones. The 2004 mainshock and aftershocksare
shown as circles proportional to magnitude. The 1847 rupture is known to have
been accompanied by several months of aftershocks and to have caused
land-slides. However, according to
natives it did not change sea-level relative to the islands (Hochstetter,
1866), and Tipper (1906) remarks
that the stability of the islands is such that no changes were observed between
the late 18th century and 1905. Car Nicobar, however, is believed to
have tilted eastward in 1881 (Ortiz and Bilham, 2002) in response to a rupture
slightly larger than the Kangra 1905
earthquake. Down-dip slip in 2004 must have been much larger than in
previous earthquakes.
The
earthquake occurred on a plate boundary with oblique slip at approximately 14
mm/year. Focal mechanisms
before the 2004 earthquake reveal that the oblique slip is partitioned
into pure thrust faulting on the
subduction zone and strike-slip faulting in a back arc region east of the
epicenter. The mechanism of the mainshock was pure thrust faulting accompanied
by aftershocks both in the subduction zone and in the back arc strike slip
regime. The thrust faulting, as in
the Himalaya, resulted in uplift near the frontal faults and subsidence above
the down-dip termination of the rupture. The Andaman Nicobar archipeligo was
tilted down to the east during the earthquake: the Sentinel Islands and westernmost
Andaman Islands are in the uplifted footwall, and the Nicobars in the part of
the footwall associated with subsidence
The
2004 rupture has several implications for Himalayan earthquakes. The length of the 2004 rupture is 60%
of the arc length of the Himalaya.
Could the Himalaya slip in a rupture this long, or longer? We have no
precedent historically for such a rupture, but then, neither did we for the
Andaman plate boundary prior to 2004.
A
long Himalayan rupture may have to re-rupture segments of the arc that have
already ruptured. Is it possible
for this to occur in the Himalaya?
Consider the following quantitative argument. Prior to the 2004
earthquake the largest of three historical earthquakes traversed by the 2004
rupture was the 1881 Mw=7.9 Car Nicobar earthquake (Ortiz and Bilham, 2002).
The 125 interval between a Mw=7.9 and its subsequent re-rupture as part of a
Mw=9 earthquake, means that the 1881 rupture zone could have accumulated a
1.4-1.75 m slip deficit because the Andaman plate converges with the Indian
plate obliquelyhere at 14±3 mm/year (Paul et al., 2001). In 100 years the Kangra region has
developed a similar slip deficit (1.4 m)
with its measured convergence rate of ≈14 mm/year. Hence re-rupture of
the Kangra region appears possible, and should it do so in a similar-sized
rupture-zone (100 km x 55 km) it could now (2005) release 
sufficient slip to drive a Mw=7.5
earthquake. It could also, by
analogy with the Andaman-Nicobar sequence, be part of a larger rupture.
Figure 5. Urban population and slip potential in the Himalaya, based
on elapsed time since the last major earthquake in various sectors along the
arc since 1400 and the GPS-derived convergence rate across the Himalaya. The
height of each trapezoid is proportional to the current slip potential in
meters, and the numbers refer to the potential size of Mw should the same
segment length slip as is currently believed to have occurred in the last
earthquake. The slip potential in the eastern Himalaya is tentative since the
effects of the 1897 Shillong earthquake are uncertain and we know of no great
historical earthquakes in Bhutan with the exception of a possible event in 1713
(Ambraseys and Jackson, 2003).
A
revised slip potential map
In 2001 we estimated the present-day
slip potential of the Himalaya by assuming that the currently observed
convergence rate had prevailed for 200 years, and by calculating the
accumulated slip that would be released at various points along the arc since
the last earthquake at each of those points, should an earthquake occur there
today (Bilham et al., 2001). The extension of the historical record to 1500,
and geological evidence for surface rupture in a large earthquake in 1400 (Wesnowsky
et al 1999, Kumar et al, 2001) permits a revised estimate of this slip
potential (Figure 5). Its accuracy depends on the following assumptions: that
we know of all significant earthquakes since 1500, that present geodetic
convergence rates have prevailed for the past 500 years, and that no slow
earthquakes have released slip during or after large earthquakes.
In
the 2001 analysis we made no attempt to estimate the along-strike rupture
length of potential future ruptures.
Despite the different along-arc lengths of segments shown in Figure 5,
the segment estimates do not necessarily represent the segment size of future
earthquakes. Each trapezoidal figure represents the slip developed since the
previous known earthquake at that location. We have no way of knowing whether a future earthquake will
rupture the same area. Using the
slip and rupture area of each of these regions we can estimate the magnitude of
an earthquake should it occur today using equation [2].
We
know less about earthquakes in the eastern Himalaya than those in the west, and
it is possible that we have underestimated seismic slip potential there. The 1897 earthquake reduced stresses in
the region, but only for a 120 km long segment of eastern Bhutan. We know with certainty of no large
earthquakes in western Bhutan with the exception of the 1713 earthquake that
damaged several monasteries. The along-strike
extent of this earthquake is unknown (Ambraseys and Jackson, 2003).
The consequences of the western Himalaya slipping in its entirety between 1400
and 1555 is that a 1200 km length of the Himalaya has matured sufficiently to
experience two or more M>>8 ruptures. The total length, and the presence of relatively modest
earthquakes in the intervening 500 years, suggest that the western Himalaya may
be in a stress state somewhat similar to the Andaman plate boundary prior to
2004. Although we have no
historical examples of simultaneous rupture of contiguous segments of the
Himalaya, we would, given the recent M=9 earthquake on India's Andaman
boundary, be foolish to ignore the
possibility that a similar great earthquake in the Himalaya.
Conclusions
The
1905 Kangra earthquake fell short of permitting the entire down-dip width of
the Himalaya to slip near longitude 77°E.
This leads to the conclusion that an additional earthquake is required
to permit slip on the main frontal faults there. Approximately 1.4 m of slip has developed since 1905 in the
≈100-km-long Kangra rupture zone so that re-rupture of the region could presently
sustain a damaging earthquake with Mw≤7.5.
A
somewhat worse scenario can be envisaged that would permit re-rupture to
accompany a contiguous or enveloping rupture to the NW or SE with a much larger
magnitude. If we are missing no
significant earthquakes in the historical record since 1400, this future
earthquake could exceed Mw=8.6 with 9 m of slip. We have no historical insight to exclude an even larger
earthquake of the sort that occurred in the Nicobar/Andaman region.
Figure
6. A map of India showing M>4
earthquakes since 1960. The black
bars indicate 200-600 km-long segments of the Indian plate boundary that have
not slipped recently. The 2004
Sumatra -Andaman earthquake reminds us that eventually these boundaries must
fail, and that we are remarkably ignorant presently concerning the timing and
total rupture length of past ruptures in the region.
The
century for which we have instrumental seismic data provides few contraints in
our estimation of the geometries of Himalayan ruptures. Dissappointingly, no
precise geodetic constraint or aftershock study exists even for the
largest earthquakes: 1905 (7.8),
1934 (8.2) and 1950 (8.5). Felt
intensities and empirical estimates based largely on intensity data and
instrumental magnitude provide our strongest constraints on rupture areas and
locations, with resulting
uncertainties of many tens of km.
For earlier earthquakes we have only intensity data, with coverage that
worsens for each century we step backwards in time. These historical data
permit us to infer that great earthquakes in the Himalaya do not rupture the
same point on the plate boundary more frequently than once every 400 years, and
possibly much longer. That the past several centuries are not anomalous is
supported by the observation that none of the past 200 years of earthquakes are
associated with surface rupture, and where surface rupture has been identified
in trench excavations of frontal faults, the slip in single events approaches
or exceeds 10 m. Five hundred year renewal times must elapse between such large
slip-events if geodetically observed convergence rates of 16-20 mm year have
prevailed.
The
present-day slip deficit in the Himalaya (Figure 4) suggests that central
Himalayan populations in the past several centuries may have witnessed
earthquakes that are atypically small. Earthquakes in 1400 and 1505 may be more
typical of the long term behaviour of the plate boundary, each rupturing
apparently at least 400 km, with
inferred magnitudes similar to the 1950 Assam earthquake. Fault slip
investigations in the Himalaya using geological trenches are currently sparse,
and a high priority is to search the frontal faults of the Himalaya for
repeated rupture and dateable liquefaction features, to learn more about the
recurrence interval and along-arc length of previously undiscovered great
earthquakes.
This
article has focused on the Himalayan plate boundary and in particular on the
seismic setting of the 1905 Kangra earthquake. India's other plate boundaries have not been discussed
because less is known of their historical slip. North of the Andamans, through
Myanmar to Assam, a thousand kilometers of India's eastern plate boundary
awaits detailed study. In the west a huge slip deficit is apparently present on
the 1000-km-long transform plate boundary. Apart from the Chaman earthquake of
1892 and the Mach/Quetta sequence of 1931-5, we know of no major earthquakes
between Himalayan latitudes and Karachi (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003). A large earthquake here would have
limited moment release because the width (defined by the depth of transform
microseismicity) of the plate boundary is a factor of five less than the
Andaman plate boundary. Nevertheless, rupture of the entire boundary is
calculated to have a moment release equivalent to a Mw=8.3 earthquake. The absence of recent historical
earthquakes in Baluchistan is also cause for concern. Although it is possible
that aseismic slip processes here may be absorb some fraction of plate boundary
slip, the occurrence of the 1892 and 1935 earthquakes suggests that seismic
slip prevails, and that we should expect ruptures with magnitudes in the range
7.5<Mw<8.
Acknowledgements
This research has been supported by the National Science
Foundation NSF-EAR 003449 and 0229690.
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