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Erik Theylk. 2004. Constraints in range predictions of invasive plant species due to non-equilibrium distribution patterns: Purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria) in North America. Ecological Modelling. Volume 179, Issue 4, Pages 551-567. Abstract. Predicting distribution patterns of invasive species in regions outside of their native range is a fundamental component of early warning systems. The first aim of this study was to analyze some of the constraints and limitations concerning the applicability of results obtained from predictive, eco-geographical modelling methods. The next main objective was to evaluate the minimum monitoring-time requirements for reliable range predictions based on non-indigenous occurrences. This was achieved by comparing departures in ‘model quality improvement’ with ‘elapsed time’ after initial species establishment and subsequently increasing levels of data completeness. Incomplete sampling or small population numbers are common problems when dealing with recently established non-indigenous species. To account for this, this study compared results from two recently developed methods which are supposedly able to deal with the ‘few known occurrences’ factor when predicting potential geographical distributions. Time series re-sampling was used as an historical simulation approach in order to apply a more realistic scenario of data situations typical for early stages of invasion processes. |
216 UCB