Blacklisted - Roger Bilham prohibited from entering India "for unspecified national security/intelligence reasons"

On 19 May 2012, on arriving in New Delhi en route to undertake scientific research in Bhutan, Professor Roger Bilham was told he was on a list of prohibited persons, and was escorted back to his plane and returned to the US. With the exception of the 2 hour stop in Delhi he was in the air for 29 hours.

He was given no explanation. His plan was to catch the flight to Paro, Bhutan, the next day after staying in a Delhi hotel near the airport. The customs officers responsible for his enforced return to the Delhi-Newark flight assured him there was nothing wrong with his visa. He was simply on a list of persons denied entry to India. His ten year multiple entry visa bears no cancellation stamp.

The US State Department confirmed in May and December that Bilham is on a list of people not allowed entry to India. The Foreigners Regional Registration Office of the Government of India indicates that "they cannot share any information about the reasons [for blacklisting] because it is a national security/intelligence issue". The list includes terrorists, journalists and, apparently, at least one scientist. The blacklist is not published, and one does not know whether one is on the blacklist except by attempting entry, or by diplomatic enquiry.

On 2 Jan 2013 the Indian Home Office issued a press release accusing Bilham of journalistic activities, citing 81 scientific articles about earthquakes and the tectonics of India written in the past quarter century.

The following chronology corrects misleading reporting in numerous news articles in India in the past year. The links to refereed articles should be used to verify facts. Newspaper articles are not linked & should be read with caution.

Why?

Scientists have only one mode of operation - the search for truth in the physical universe. In the past 25 years Bilham has published numerous articles on the tectonics of the Indo-Asian collision, and the history of earthquakes in India, most of which are of only academic interest. However, an article coauthored by Professor V. K. Gaur, published in November 2011, triggered unexpected interest in the press. The article articulated well known, uncontroversial issues related to the seismicity of southern India. What singles this article from others is that it mentions earthquakes in the context of the design accelerations needed for correctly engineering the planned Jaitapur Nuclear Power station south of Mumbai.

Bilham, R., and V. K. Gaur, (2011) Historical and Future Seismicity near Jaitapur, India, Current Science, Current Science, 101(10), 1275-1281. pdf

The theme of the Jaitapur article was that despite the absence of a historical precedence for any significant seismicity, a Mw=6 earthquake cannot be excluded from occurring near the planned plant. Given that the Fukushima plant shut down safely in a Mw=9.1 earthquake (30,000 times more energy than a Mw=6 earthquake) this article should have caused no concern to the public, or to the press. The design earthquake for Jaitapur is merely a starting parameter for earthquake engineers to correctly construct a power plant (see 0.5g discussion).

Following the publication of this article, representatives from the organisation "Greenpeace" asked Bilham whether he would explain the gist of the article to reporters during his next visit to India. They indicated specifically that Indian seismologists were unwilling to talk to them about seismicity near Jaitapur "for fear of government repercussions". He agreed to talk so long as they made it clear that he was not representing Greenpeace, nor talking about nuclear power, and was being only asked to comment on earthquake issues discussed in the published article. The interview occurred on 12 January 2011 and is available on YouTube.

On 16 January Bilham was invited to give the invited plenary address at the Indo-US Workshop on intraplate Seismicity in Gandhinagar, Gujarat. (talk.pdf). The session was chaired by Harsh Gupta who, at its conclusion, asked one question and dismissively interrupted Bilham's reply. The question was "How can you possibly justify forecasts of future seismic risk based only on historical catalogues" . Since the preceding 30 minute talk had specifically addressed the problems attending answering this question Dr. Gupta was either not listening, or was instead asking a question about procedures discussed in Bilham & Gaur 2011.

Bilham then proceeded to give a second invited talk entitled "Medieval Multihazards and Future earthquakes in Kashmir" (talk.pdf abstract.pdf, Kashmir flood article). This talk enlarged on collaborative findings (2007 MOU) with the University of Kashmir first presented at the December AGU meeting in San Francisco (AGU Talk, AGU abstract, published MMax GPS article). The talk highlighted the danger of flooding to Srinagar from small earthquakes blocking the Jhelum downstream from Baramulla, and proposed a maximum credible earthquake (Mmax) for Kashmir of Mw=8.9 (of 33 calculated scenario earthquakes the largest was Mw=9.0, Schiffman et al., 2013). No questions arising from this talk were permitted from the audience by conference convener Prof. Bal Rastogi on the grounds that the Himalayan topic was not central to the mid-plate seismicity theme of the workshop.

At a closed session meeting of organisers following these two talks Gupta asked why Bilham had been invited to talk at the meeting. Evidently dissatisfied with the answer Gupta voiced an opinion that Bilham's future access to Indian science could be restricted.

Blacklisting followed a meeting in February 2012 attended by the Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh and numerous seismologists from National Geophysical Research Institute and elsewhere. Attendees relate that a presentation was made by Gupta questioning the plausibility of Mmax=8.9 for Kashmir. Had Bilham been invited he would have explained to Dr. Gupta in greater detail the physics & arithmetic underlying this calculation.

On 25 July 2012 an article by Prof. B. Rastogi (pdf) was published by Current Science critical of a number of typos in Bilham and Gaur (2011). In this article Dr. Rastogi indicated that the site investigation for Jaitapur (still publicly unavailable) has done everything possible to prove that no earthquake can occur, echoing the 17 Jan press release of the Nuclear Power Corporation of India. Errors and misunderstandings in Prof. Rastogi's article, however, and the current public secrecy concerning the Jaitapur site investigation, prompted the publication of a sequel discussing geological and geophysical considerations for the assessment of future seismicity (Gaur & Bilham, 2012). This article re-affirms the conclusion that "Tectonically, the Jaitapur region is precisely in the same state of seismic quiescence and historical ignorance as the regions of Latur or Koyna were, prior to the damaging earthquakes for which they are now famous." The article explains the physics and tectonics of how earthquakes can occur near Jaitapur and suggests that the coastal Vijaydurg fault may have slipped in several Mw>7 earthquakes in the past. This fault passes within 10 km of Jaitapur. Numerous types of site investigation to confirm or refute recent activity on this fault, or other offshore faults, are mentioned in the article with the expectation that they have been addressed in the publicly unavailable site study.

Gaur, V. K. and R. Bilham, (2012) Discussion of seismicity near Jaitapur, Current Science, 103(11).1273-1278 pdf

Between January and October Bilham was contacted by several young Indian scientists indicating that due to intimidation and threats of job security they could no longer collaborate scientifically and would need to curtail future correspondence.

Harsh Gupta is the President of the IUGG, an international organization for encouraging international exchange of scientific ideas on geodesy and geophysics. On 17 July 2012, the late Professor N. N. Ambraseys wrote to Gupta requesting action to undo the blacklisting, indicating that "inaction on your part, as a prominent Indian scientist, may be misinterpreted as an admission of participation in the decision that led to Roger's denial of passage". Despite his international obligations, Gupta has declined to act on this issue. He must be congratulated, however, for the considerable funding now made available by the National Disaster Management Authority (of which he is a member) for earthquake studies in Kashmir (see 14 Oct 2011 panel).

News of Bilham's blacklisting was announced at the December 2012 AGU during session U44B on the tragic imprisonment of seismologists in Italy who were accused of not clarifying the true risks from future earthquakes in L'Aquila. At the meeting Prof. Wyss noted that the Indian government has apparently chosen to suppress the open discussion of future seismicity in India. An opinion piece in Science (AAAS 7 Dec 2012) voices a similar view.

Bagla, P. (2012) India Barred Entry to U.S. Author of Seismic Review. Science 338, 1275 pdf http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6112/1275

Organisations such as the Indo-US science & Technology Forum are in place to promote the open exchange of scientific ideas and to advise government ministries in the progress of successful collaboration. Clearly the Indian Government is not to blame for blacklisting scientists, especially those that have demonstrably worked diligently in the interests of India. Such actions are undertaken on the recommendation of experts. Harsh Gupta is a key figure in the above events, and naturally denies involvement in influencing government decisions made in 2012. His prominent silence and absence of action in his leadership role in the IUGG, however, speaks eloquently to a conflict of interest that only he can resolve.

2 Jan 2013 The Home Ministry of the government of India issued an press release requiring all scientists to apply for a specific purpose visa for conferences, and collaborative research. They do not explain why Bilham was deported while changing flights in transit to Bhutan.