 |
 |
| Pielke Home | People | Publications | Images | Courses | News | Links | Contact |
| RESEARCH GROUPS @ CIRES > |
Courses >
Spring 2009
ATOC 7500-001: Tropical Cyclones
3 Credits, Location: ATOC conference room (STAD 255-21) ; 10:00 - 12:30 Fridays
Tropical cyclones are a particularly virulent form of weather that can cause devastation and large loss of life. Recently Gustav and Ike caused extensive property damage along and inland from the Gulf coast of the United States. Strong tropical cyclones have different names than hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean region and typhoons in the western north Pacific Ocean, but they are the same weather feature.
This course on Tropical Cyclones will present the physics of their formation, intensification, movement, and dissipation. Their effects on society will be explained. The subject matter will follow the Table of Contents in
Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp. Out of print, will be supplied to registered students. PDF
and the material in
Emanuel, Kerry, 2005: Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. Oxford University Press. ISBN-13:978-019-514941-8 and ISBN-10:0-19-514941-6
Additional Reading: Pielke, R.A., 1990: The hurricane. Routledge Press, London, England, 228 pp.
Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:11:52 -0700 (MST)
From: Kevin Joseph Sharp
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
sp09
Subject: Undergrad Tropical Cyclones Thesis
Hey everyone,
In case anyone is interested, here is a copy of the undergraduate honors thesis I wrote at the University of Tennessee entitled "Tropical Cyclones and Americas Coastal Population."
Kevin Sharp
Master's Student
Department of Geography
University of Colorado at Boulder
Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:07:47 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday Jan 16 class
I enjoyed meeting several of you today. For the assignment for next week, please read
1. Chapters 1 and 3 in Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp.
The pdf for the book is at this link
2. Chapters 1 and 2 in Emanuel, Kerry, 2005: Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. Oxford University Press. ISBN-13:978-019-514941-8 and ISBN-10:0-19-514941-6
3. For those we want more information on meteorological concepts please read Chapters 2, 3 and 4 [we will spend, as needed, time in class to discuss these concepts]in Pielke Sr., R.A. 2002: Synoptic Weather Lab Notes. Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science Class Report #1, Final Version, August 20, 2002.
4. Select a paper listed under "Current Related Literature" below , or one of your choice, and present an overview of it for class next Friday. Dallas can help you obtain the pdf of any paper, if the urls are not already available.
5. Join the tropical-storms mailing group. See how to join at http://www.tstorms.org/tropical-storms/. Our class fits under the type "Tropical-Storms is a mailing list only for individuals who are active in either the research..."
Finally, please send us any specific topics you would like discussed.
Also, let me know if I missed anything! See you next Friday.
Roger
Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 17:11:52 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class this Friday January 23
Hi All, Our class will start at 1015am this Friday, instead of our usual time, as I am giving a talk at NCAR. Normally, we will start at 10am. I look forward to meeting those who were not in class last Friday.
Roger
Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2009 13:21:54 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday November 23
Hi All, Thank you for the two excellent overviews of the papers! Your presentations were very effective and informative. Please send Dallas the urls for the papers and the one powerpoint to Dallas and she will place on our class website. We will routinely plan to post powerpoint presentations (with your name as author) unless you tell us otherwise.
For next Friday, we will start at 10am and end about 1215pm or so, with a short break. For our activities, please
1. E-mail all of us the paper(s) you plan to discuss.
2. Read chapters 3-10 in Emanuel's book
3. Look at the Appendices of his book, and load and test the model he has in Appendix III. We will also play with this in class.
4. Read Chapter 2 and 4 in my book.
5. Read (or review if already familiar), Chapters 3 and 4 in http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-77.pdf
Plan to also discuss a topic you would like to make for a class paper to present at the end of the semester.
6. We are going to work to sign you up for the tropical storms group. Please let Dallas know who has already signed up, so we do not repeat.
See you next Friday. If you have any questions about the material you are reading, please e-mail all of and/or also ask in class.
Roger
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:10:03 -0700 (MST)
From: Whitney Doss
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
sp09
Subject: Re: query
All, Attached are the two papers I will be discussing for tomorrow's class.
Frappier et al: Stalagmite stable isotope record of recent tropical cyclone events. Geology; February 2007; v. 35; no. 2; p. 111-114; DOI: 10.1130/G23145A.1
Nyberg et al. 2007: Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature, Vol 447|7 June 2007| doi:10.1038/nature05895
See you then!
Whitney
> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <
Whitney C Doss
Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research
Department of Geology
University of Colorado at Boulder
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:23:19 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Whitney Doss
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: query
Thanks Whitney!
All- please send your paper(s) also, if you can. Dallas will also post the url for them on our class website.
Roger
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:37:49 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie Evan
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Whitney Doss
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: query
Hi all, Here's the paper I'm going to present tomorrow.
(2003), Initiation of a mesoscale convective complex over the Ethiopian Highlands preceding the genesis of Hurricane Alberto (2000), Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 1232, doi:10.1029/2002GL016655.
It's about a mesoscale convective complex observed over the Ethiopian Highlands and how it evolved into hurricane Alberto. You can also have a look at a website I've done as a class project which explains what mesocale convective complexes are: http://www.cora.nwra.com/~steph/mcsweb/
Stephanie
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:37:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Kevin Joseph Sharp
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Whitney Doss
Cc: sp09
Subject: Paper to be discussed on Friday
Hello all, I will be discussing the following paper tomorrow in class:
Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden, 2008: Whither Hurricane Activity? Science Science 322 (5902), 687. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396] http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2008/gav0803.pdf
Kevin
Kevin Sharp
Master's Student
Department of Geography
University of Colorado at Boulder
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:01:45 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Stephanie Evan
Cc: Whitney Doss
sp09
Subject: Re: query
Hi Stephanie, Excellent! Dallas will also place the pdf of this paper on our class site. Roger
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:04:07 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Kevin Joseph Sharp
Cc: Whitney Doss
sp09
Subject: Re: Paper to be discussed on Friday
Hi Kevin, Thanks! This is another excellent choice. Dallas will post on our class website too.
Roger
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2009 10:27:45 -0700
From: Herbert Eugene Longenecker
To: sp09
Subject: RE: Paper to be discussed on Friday
Here's the paper I'll review:
L. Fita, R. Romero, A. Luque, K. Emanuel, and C. Ramis January 2007 in NHESS ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Fita_etal_2007.pdf
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:30:05 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: RE: Paper to be discussed on Friday
Hi Gene, This will be very interesting! Topical cyclones (maybe!) in the Mediterranean have been suggested by quite a few in recent years.
Roger
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:49:31 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -
Subject: class for Friday Feb 6
Hi All, The presentations and discussion on the papers this morning were excellent and very informative. The critical assessment of each paper is exactly the perspective we should emphasize, along with the physics that they tell us.
For next Friday,
1. Please read the following:
i) Chapters 11-12 in Emanuel
ii) Look at read where interested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season
iii) Chapter 5 in Appendix D in P&P
iv) Plan to also discuss a topic you would like to make for a class paper to present at the end of the semester
v) Send us the url (or pdf) of the paper(s) you plan to discuss in class.
vi) regarding polar lows and tropical cyclones, please read the information on these websites
http://www.nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/polar_low.html
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Polar-low---the-arctic-hurricane.htm
As a source on this systems (but not a reading request) see
vii) for additional information regarding mesoscale convective systems, see
http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/faculty/Jun05_2000/docs/junker/facultymcc2000.htm
http://www.ems.psu.edu/~young/hp/res_mcs.htm
In class, we will go over this material, and focus where there is the most interest, as well as continue in Chapter 4 of the weather lab notes. Whitney, please also let us know what you find out about the Nature paper.
Have a good week!
Roger
Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2009 09:27:43 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Cc: sp09
Subject: My paper for this week/success with the model
My paper for this week is here:
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Abbot_Emanuel_2007.pdf
It is Abbot and Emanuel's "A Tropical and Subtropical Land-Sea-Atmosphere Drought Oscillation Mechanism."
Also, I've had some success running the model and visualizing it with MatLab. It requires a FORTRAN compiler, which comes with Ubuntu but which I don't know much about for macs and PCs. I'm sure one can be downloaded. I can help anyone who is running Ubuntu either as an OS or in VMWare.
-Stephanie
Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2009 10:15:29 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: What is a sub-tropical cyclone?
Hi All, For Friday, Stephanie Higgins will be discussing a paper on subtropical cyclones. To provide a persepctive on these weather systems, please see What is a sub-tropical cyclone? [http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A6.html.
I also recommend other Q&As and definitions at
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqA.html
Roger
Date: Fri, 6 Feb 2009 16:07:16 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Class Friday Feb 13 2008
Hi All, Thank you Stephanie for an excellent overview of the Abbot and Emanuel paper and instructions on how to use the idealized hurricane model! Others, please try other parameters in the model if you are interested. It would be good
tutorial to guess what the effect would be and why, and then see if the model results fit your understanding.
For our class Friday Feb 13, below are the papers which I would like us to focus on. Please overview each paper, and read those in which you have a particular interest. The urls are on our class website.
A. Tropical cyclone genesis
Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A, 59, 428-443.
Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel and A.H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834
McTaggart-Cowan, R., G.D. Deane, L.F. Bosart, C.A. Davis, and T.J. Galarneau, 2008: Climatology of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic (1948-2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1284-1304.
Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative.convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.
B. Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting
Camargo, S.J., and A.G. Barnston, 2008: Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Chen, T.C., S.Y. Wang, M.C. Yen, and A.J. Clark, 2008: Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Chylek, P., and G. Lesins, 2008: Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851.2007. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010036.
LaRow, T.E., Y.K. Lim, D.W. Shin, E. Chassignet and S. Cocke, 2008: Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations. J. Climate, 21, 3191-3206.
Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity, Nature, 450, 1066-1071.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/
Future topics we will overview include the paleo-hurricane record, hurricane track and intensity modeling, climate change and hurricanes, and hurricane threats to society and the environment. If you have particular papers you want
us to discuss, please send to us.
Also, read Chapters 13 and 14 in Emanuel's book.
Kevin- would you be willing to overview your honors thesis "Tropical Cyclones and Americas Coastal Population?
Finally, as we discussed in class, the class we normally hold on March 20th will be moved to Thursday March 12 at 8am (in the same conference room). The class we would normally have May 1 will be held April 23 at 8am. The April 23 and 24th classes will be to give you class presentations, as well as overview the major conclusions we have found in our reviews of the recent research papers.
Have a good week!
Roger
Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:17:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie Evan
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
Herbert Eugene Longenecker
Cc: sp09 -
Subject: paper for tomorrow
Hi all, Here's the paper I'll review tomorrow:
Chen TC, Wang SY, Yen MC, Clark AJ (2008) Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Stephanie
Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:21:48 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: seminar
Hi All, Please attend Dr. Dairaku's seminar if you can. It is tomorrow at 4pm. It is quite relevant to our class.
http://paos.colorado.edu/events/events.php
Friday, February 13: Koji Dairaku, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan. Introduction of multi-model ensembles and downscaling for regional risk assessment. Introduction of multi-model
ensemble and downscaling for regional risk assessment of climate change in Japan.
Roger
Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 15:47:59 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: some more papers on genesis
Hi All, Here are more sources of information on genesis:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_138707.htm
http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108440.htm
Roger
Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:51:26 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class for Friday Feb 20 2009
Hi All, Thank you for two excellent presentations today by Kevin and Stephanie E.! They both provided in insight and were effectively presented.
For our next class, we will overview seasonal prediction using the the papers and other information that was listed in last week's e-mail.
Also, we will start on tropical cyclone classification and on intensity and track forecasting. For these subjects please look at the following papers:
Tropical cyclone classification by satellite(the Dvorak technique)
Velden, C.S., T.L. Olander, and R.M. Zehr, 1998: Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 172–186.
Guide to Dvorak Classification of Satellite Images
Tropical cyclone intensity -
DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1994: A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 209–220.
DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 326-337.
DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2005: Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20:4, 531-543.
Hurricane Intensity Forecast Improvements and Impacts Projections (HiFi):
http://www.nova.edu/ocean/hifi/
Bender, M.A., I. Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3965–3989.
Rhome, J.R. 2007: Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models. National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, 14 pp. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
Also, Gene, will you be able to present your FEMA work next week? Others-please also let me know if you would like to overview a paper(s).
I hope to see you at Koji's seminar later today!
Roger
Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2009 07:51:12 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Forwarded mail....
Hi All, Dallas did some excellent detective work and found several papers that we will also discuss. The latest concept in Montgomery's research is summarized in the news article.
Roger
--
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 16 Feb 2009 09:57:06 -0700 (MST)
From: Dallas Staley
To: Roger Pielke Sr.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2008-08-17-hurricane-pouch_N.htm
http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/papers/USAToday.pdf
see related paper:
Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2008: Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, 8, 11149–11292,
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/11149/2008/
RE: Mike Montgomery's research. I posted some of his papers on the class website today.
Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2009 19:13:58 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: tropical cyclone track archives (fwd)
Hi All, This article and source of information just appeared in EOS. It is an excellent resource on track information.
Knapp, K.R., M.C. Kruk, D.H . Levinson, and E.J. Gibney, 2009: Archive Compiles New Resource for Global Tropical Cyclone Research. Eos, 90:6, 46-47.
Roger
Date: Fri, 20 Feb 2009 13:41:31 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class
Hi All, As reminders, we are meeting 8am Thursday March 12th in place of our class on March 20th. Also, we will meet April 23rd (Thursday) at 8am instead of May 1st. The classes April 23 and 24 will be for your class presentations of your project, and I will also overview the main points of the class.
For next Friday, please
1. Read Chapters 15-19 in Emanuel's book.
2. We will look at the papers on seasonal prediction.
3. Please also present a paper on a subject of your choice (and send to each of us).
4. We will look at examples of the radar depiction of hurricanes.
5. Read Chapter 2 in Pielke and Pielke if you have not already.
Have a good weekend!
Roger
Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 20:45:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: sp09
HI All - here is my paper for tomorrow:
Title: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.
Can you confirm that no one presented this last week?
Cheers, Stephanie
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 07:22:36 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Stephanie A Higgins
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: my paper for tomorrow
Hi Stephanie, No one presented this paper; we did briefly go over his modeling but you will be able to add a significant new perspective. This is an excellent choice!
Roger
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:39:32 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Class Feb 29th
Hi All, Thank you for the very good discussion today, and for Gene's excellent and informative presentation. For our next class
1. We will have a presentation by Katia Friedrich
2. Stephanie Higgins will give a presentation on
Title: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.
3. Read Chapters 20-21 in Emanuel
4. We will look at several papers on the use of radars to monitor tropical cyclones
Reasor, P.D., M.T. Montgomery, F.D. Marks, and J.F. Gamache, 2000: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution of the Hurricane Inner Core Observed by Airborne Dual-Doppler Radar. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1653–1680.
Marks Jr., F.D., and R. Houze, 1987: Inner core structure of Hurricane Alicia from airborne Doppler radar observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1296-1317.
Franklin, J.L., S.J. Lord, S.E. Feuer, and F.D. Marks, 1993: The Kinematic Structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) Determined from Nested Analyses of Dropwindsonde and Doppler Radar Data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2433–2451.
Sources of radar information
http: //www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http: //radar.weather.gov/
Radar images of hurricanes. http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=radar+images+of+hurricanes&gbv=2
5. We will check into current tropical cyclone activity; see
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/ (and search further on their forecasts).
http: //tropicalcyclones.blogspot.com/
http: //www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/
http: //www.wunderground.com/tropical/
6. Also, please send us paper(s) that you would like to discuss.
7. For future classes, please look at the paper at http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&lr=&q=paleo+studies+of+hurricanes&btnG=Search
and let us know which you would like us to discuss on paleo-records of tropical cyclones.
Enjoy your weekend!
Roger
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:52:14 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: class projects
Hi All, Please also be prepared to discuss what your class project will be. The oral presentations will be on April 23 and 24th. Your powerpoint slides will serve as the written report.
Roger
Date: Wed, 4 Mar 2009 22:02:47 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: new paper
Hi All, This is quite interesting.
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/the-collapse-of-global-tropical-cyclone-activity-5027
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL035946.shtml
Roger
Date: Fri, 6 Mar 2009 14:23:21 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Classes
Hi All, Stephanie - thank you for your excellent summary of the Demaria paper today! The reporting on the lack of statistical significance in most of the trends is quite an important issue, and is often overlooked when linear regression lines are placed on figures.
For next Thursday and Friday, we will have a presentation by my son on his tropical cyclone damage research during one of these two days. I will send out an e-mail as soon as confirmed. I will also overview the major concepts that we have covered so far (the major take away concepts of the class).
1. We will also start on the climate-hurricane connection. Please look over the following papers (and we will add to later). Let us know if you would like to present one or more of these papers. I will also overview issues with respect to skillfully predicting future climate [you can see a summary of my perspective at
Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
and
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11,
54-55.].
Also, please read the Executive Summary of
National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 208 pp.
Climate Change - Tropical Cyclone Connection
Emanuel, K., 2008: The Hurricane-Climate Connection. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, ES10-ES20.
Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc,, 89, 347-367.
Frappier, A., T. Knutson, K.-B. Liu, and K. Emanuel, 2007: Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling. Tellus A, 59, 529-537.
Hasling, J., 2009: WRC HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE. GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES: PAST . PRESENT . FUTURE. MMS ITM, January 6, 2009.
Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, I.M. Held and R.E. Tuleya, 2007: Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-Grid regional model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1549–1565. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1549.
Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi, and I.M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience 1, 359 - 364. FAQ and commentary
Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454.
Landsea, C. W., 2007: Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(18), 197, doi:10.1029/2007EO180001.
Mann, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland, and P. J. Webster, 2007: Atlantic tropical cyclones revisited. EOS, 88, 349-350. Copyright 2007, American Geophysical Union.
Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden, 2008: Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 322 (5902), 687. [DOI:10.1126/science.1164396]
Wang, C., and S.-K. Lee, 2008: Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032
2. We will discuss non-tropical cyclone strong wind events such aschinooks, boras, derechos, and tornadoes, and what they have in common and how they differ from tropical cyclone wind events.
3. We will discuss more on microphysics (the cold and warm cloud process, and how this relates to tropical storms).
4. We will also look at paleo-history studies including
McCloskey, T.A., and J.T. Knowles, 2008: Migration of the tropical cyclone zone throughout the Holocene. In: Hurricanes and Climate Change, J.B. Elsner and T.H. Jagger, Eds., 61-72, Springer.
[please send us others if you find them in the literature).
5. We will also look at the Q&A on tropical cyclones http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html
Enjoy your weekend! See you next Thursday (March 12) at 8am.
Roger
Date: Sat, 7 Mar 2009 17:50:17 -0700 (MST)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Hurricane Mamish
Hi All, FYI - Severe Tropical Cyclone [hurricane] Hamish
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Winds are about 175 mph.
Roger
Date: Sun, 8 Mar 2009 10:46:38 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: another website
Hi All
Here is a very useful website to follow tropical cyclone activity worldwide;
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/
We will also discuss the data on this website in class.
Roger
Date: Sun, 8 Mar 2009 14:20:21 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: sprirl galaxies
Hi All, Stephanie H. asked the very interesting question as to if the processes of spiral arms in galaxies is formed in a similar manner as hurricane spiral bands. Below are several sources on what are hypothesized to form spiral arms in galaxies;
The process is quite distinct from tropical cyclones. Let us know if you find other information on this subject.
The center of galaxies also is distinct from that of a tropical cyclone; see
It appears to be a black hole, as reported on the above website;
"The evidence is mounting that Sag A* is indeed a black hole of 2-3 million times the mass of the sun."
Thank you for bringing up this very interesting question!
Roger
Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2009 10:01:01 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Fwd: Thursday class at 8am (fwd)
Hi All, Roger will be able to talk to us about his research on Thursday. He has recommended the readings below.
Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2006. Seventh Annual Roger Revelle Commemorative
Lecture: Disasters, Death, and Destruction: Making Sense of Recent Calamities, Oceanography, Special Issue: The Oceans and Human Health, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 138-147.
And they could browse this:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/
Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2009 17:12:29 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: another reference
Hi All, Please add this report to your list of resources for class:
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/globa_guide_intro.htm
Roger
Date: Wed, 11 Mar 2009 10:02:58 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Katja Friedrich
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: class presentation
Hi Katja, Thanks! I have cced to our class and Dallas will post this information on the class website. Thank you again for contributing an outstanding talk!
Roger
On Wed, 11 Mar 2009, Katja Friedrich wrote:
> Roger,
>
> I put the presentation on the atoc web server:
> http://atoc.colorado.edu/~friedrik/IKE/Class_Roger/
>
> you find more images etc. at http://atoc.colorado.edu/~friedrik/IKE/
>
> Regards,
> Katja
>
> _____________________________________
>
> Dr. Katja Friedrich
>
> Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences
> University of Colorado
> UCB 311
> Boulder, CO 80309-0311
Date: Wed, 11 Mar 2009 11:51:17 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: RE: topic
Hi All, For our discussions on the climate change/tropical cyclone issue, please add this one.
Shepherd, J. M. and T. Knutson, 2007: The current debate on the linkage between global warming and hurricanes. Geography Compass, 1(1), 1-24.
Roger
Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 06:40:52 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: satellite images
Hi All, Here is another url to add to the list of useful weather websites;
http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/
Roger
Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 06:42:34 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: another website
Hi All, For our discussions on climate, please look at this website also
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
Roger
Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 10:41:33 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday's class
Hi All, Thank you for attending this morning's class, and for the informative discussion! Since we are going to look into the climate/tropical cyclone issue, I thought it would be useful to present the 2007 IPCC and 2005 NRC reports for background. They can be obtained from
National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 208 pp.
Source for IPCC reports http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/index.htm
For my views, see
Pielke Sr., Roger A., 2008: A Broader View of the Role of Humans in the Climate System is Required In the Assessment of Costs and Benefits of Effective Climate Policy. Written Testimony for the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality of the Committee on Energy and Commerce Hearing. Climate Change: Costs of Inaction. Honorable Rick Boucher, Chairman. June 26, 2008, Washington, DC., 52 pp
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.
See you tomorrow at 10am!
Roger
Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 19:28:28 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: new weblog on minimum tropical cyclone activity
Hi All, Here is a weblog from today on the low tropical cyclone activity.
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5449
Roger
Date: Sat, 14 Mar 2009 13:57:19 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Class for April 3
Hi All, Thank you for another excellent class yesterday and for very good questions! For the two that Stephanie H. asked about (the wave characteristics of extratropical cyclones and for the concept of the tipping point), for the first one see the weather lab notes [Chapter 3] and also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave.
For the concept of "tipping point", I actually suggest that this term obscures that climate is always changing and has never been static. There have been regime changes on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We discuss
these shifts and the nonlinearity of the climate system in the papers
Rial, J., R.A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, J. Canadell, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de Noblet-Ducoudre, R. Prinn, J. Reynolds, and J.D. Salas, 2004: Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds within the Earth's climate system. Climatic Change, 65, 11-38.
Pielke, R.A. Sr., H.J. Schellnhuber, and D. Sahagian, 2003: Non-linearities in the Earth system. Global Change Newsletter, No. 55, 11-15.
Please let me know by e-mail if you have further questions, or bring them to class next time.
For our next class (the Friday after Spring break - April 3), read Chapters 6, 7 and 8 in the P&P Hurricanes book. This provide an effective summary of some of the issues Roger Jr. raised yesterday in class.
Also, in the Emanuel book, read Chapters 22-26.
In addition, let us know paper(s) you would like to discuss in class. Your presentations have been very effective at broadening the information in class on tropical cyclones.
We will continue to discuss the papers and urls that are listed in our earlier e-mails.
Have a good Spring Break! Roger
Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:42:58 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: paper
Hi All, Please add this paper to those you read:
Dorst, N.M., 2007: The National Hurricane Research Project: 50 Years of Research, Rough Rides, and
Name Changes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, Issue 10, 1566- 1588.
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1566.
Roger
Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 15:33:54 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Re: paper (fwd)
Hi All, Whitney has offered to discuss this paper at our next class (April 3rd). Dallas - please also post as a url on our class website.
Lawrence, J. R., Gedzelman, S.D., Gamache, J. Black, M., 2002: Stable isotope ratios of precipitation collected at 3km elevation in Hurricane Olivia (1994). J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 67-82.
Roger
Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:32:24 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: papers
Hi All
Please let me know who else would like to present a paper on Friday. So far we have
Whitney on Lawrence, J. R., Gedzelman, S.D., Gamache, J. Black, M., 2002: Stable isotope ratios of precipitation collected at 3km elevation in Hurricane Olivia (1994). J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 67-82.
If there are others, please let us know and send us the web link if you have it.
Roger
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 11:51:48 -0600 (MDT)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: Roger A Pielke Sr
sp09 -- Dallas Staley
Subject: Re: papers
On Friday I will present Fita et al., "Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci (2007)
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 12:02:00 -0600 (MDT)
From: Stephanie A Higgins
To: sp09
Subject: just kidding...
...Gene presented that one a few weeks ago. Instead, I will present:
INTERNAL CONTROL OF HURRICANE INTENSITY VARIABILITY: THE DUAL NATURE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY MIXING, Christopher M.
Rozoff1, James P. Kossin1, Wayne H. Schubert, Pedro J. Mulero1, J. Atmos. Sci, 2008 (submitted)
I think we talked about this briefly in class but I'm pretty sure no one has done an in depth presentation on it - right?
Cheers, Stephanie
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 13:16:50 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: Stephanie A Higgins
Cc: sp09
Subject: Re: just kidding...
Hi Stephanie, This is an excellent choice! We did not go into this subject very far, and this paper will add valuable insight into this issue. Roger
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 13:19:20 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To:
sp09
Subject: Re: just kidding...
Hi Whitney, This will be a very important presentation as it discusses how tropical cyclones can cause havoc well inland. If you have photos of the damage either right after it happened, or recently, that would also be quite informative.
Roger
Date: Thu, 2 Apr 2009 14:42:36 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: MS THESIS DEFENSE - Carl Drews (fwd)
Hi All, This may be of interest for you. Roger
Date: Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:25:36 -0600
From: Laurie B. Conway
To: atoc-faculty@lists.Colorado.EDU, atoc-students@lists.Colorado.EDU,
atoc-researchers@lists.Colorado.EDU
Subject: MS THESIS DEFENSE - Carl Drews
Time and Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2009 at 2:30pm
Location: ATOC Conference Room, Folsom Stadium Room 255-12 (see directions below)
Title: Application of Storm Surge Modeling to Moses' Crossing of the Red Sea; and to Manila Bay, the Philippines.
Abstract: Storm surge occurs in low-lying coastal areas when strong winds blow the sea surface up onto the land. The resulting inundation can pose a great danger to lives and property. This study uses an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) and the results from a mesoscale atmospheric model to simulate storm surge and wind setdown. Two case studies are presented. We reconstruct the crossing of the Red Sea by Moses and the Israelites, as described in Exodus 14. The eastern Nile delta of Egypt matches the Biblical narrative and provides a hydrological mechanism for water to remain on both sides of the dry passage. We also evaluate the vulnerability of Manila Bay and the surrounding areas to a Category 3 typhoon. The simulated surge heights depend heavily on the wind direction and the coastal topography.
Date: Fri, 3 Apr 2009 08:19:07 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09 -
Subject: class paper (fwd)
Hi All, These two short essays are valuable for our discussions on climate change and tropical cyclones.
Roger
Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R., and Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2009. Do we need better predictions to adapt to changing climate? Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.
Harrison, S, and D. Stainforth, 2009: Predicting climate change: Lessons from reductionism, emergence, and the past. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.
Date: Fri, 3 Apr 2009 16:09:19 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday April 10 class
Hi All, For Friday April 10th, Stephanie H. is scheduled to present a paper, and Whitney will present information on the tropical cyclone associated flooding from Camille in Virgina. We also will plan to discuss the role of Saharan dust on tropical cyclones; see
Carlson, T. N., and J. M. Prospero, 1972: The large-scale movement of Saharan air outbreaks over the northern equatorial Atlantic. J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 283– 297.
2006: New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19813, doi:10.1029/2006GL026408.
Karyampudi, V.M., and H.F. Pierce, 2002: Synoptic-scale influence of the Saharan air layer on tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3100–3128.
African dust can be seen in these images:
http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=african+dust&btnG=Search+Images&gbv=2&aq=f&oq=
Zhang H., G. M. McFarquhar, S. M. Saleeby, W. R. Cotton, 2007: Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14812, doi:10.1029/2007GL029876.
We will also discuss proposals to modify tropical cyclones:
STORMFURY:
Willoughby, H., D. Jorgensen, R. Black, and S. Rosenthal, 1985: Project STORMFURY: A Scientific Chronicle 1962–1983. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 505–514.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/stormfury_era.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury
Other proposals
Cotton, W.R., H. Zhang, G.M. McFarquhar, and S.M. Saleeby, 2007: Should we consider polluting hurricanes to reduce their intensity? J. Wea. Mod., 39, 70-73.
Cotton, W.R., 2007: Cloud seeding concepts. Southwest Hydrology, 6, 16-17
Gray, W.M., 1973: Feasibility of beneficial hurricane modification by carbon dust seeding. Atmospheric Science Paper 196, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 129 pp plus appendices.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/Northeast_tropical/netropical_2007.pdf
Landsea, C., 2006: Towards a National Agenda for Hurricane Science and Engineering:Academic Perspectives Academic Research Perspectives, National Science Board Workshop, April 18, 2006.
Finally, if there are weather jargon words used in these papers, please e-mail and we will define them for class.
Have a good weekend!
Roger
Date: Mon, 6 Apr 2009 08:35:19 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: url
Hi All, We will also discuss aspects of my earlier book on hurricanes either this Friday or next Friday.
Pielke, R.A., 1990: The hurricane. Routledge Press, London, England, 228 pp.
Roger
Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:35:10 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday April 17th class
Hi All, For Friday April 17th, we will first have the presentations by Whitney and Stephanie H. Then I plan to provide a summary of the topics we covered this semester in order to highlight the major findings that of the class.
The broad topics include: tropical cyclone genesis; tropical cyclone intensification and dissipation; relationship to extratropical cyclones; observational platforms; forecast models of tropical cyclones; the climate-tropical cyclone connection; paleo-record of tropical cyclones; and impacts of and vulnerabilities to tropical cyclones. I will ask each of you to help fill in these findings with us.
I may show a powerpoint from a hurricane scientists that was sent to me titled "Hurricane Size vs. Intensity".
The classes of April 23rd at 8am (Thursday) and at 10am on April 24th (Friday) will be our last class meetings. These times are reserved for your class presentation, and you have as much time to present as you will need. Please send us your titles as soon as you can, and Dallas will post.
Roger
Date: Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:54:22 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: class
Hi All, Despite the expected snow, we will still have class tomorrow. We will start with Whitney and Stephanie H.'s talk and then I plan to summarize major conclusions from the class. Please come prepared to discussion your major findings, as well as any questions. I may have one more powerpoint talk from a colleague to present also.
For our two classes next week, please send Dallas your titles to post (with ccs to all of us).
Roger
Date: Sat, 18 Apr 2009 10:48:50 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: last two classes
Hi All, Thank you again for the two excellent presentations by Whitney and Stephanie H. yesterday. Please send Dallas your powerpoint talks to post, if that is okay with you. Also, Whitney, please send us the link to the book (e.g. from Amazon).
For our class Thursday 8am (April 23rd) we will collectively overview the major findings of the class. Stephanie E. and Gene will present their talks.
On Friday, for our class at 10 am, Stephanie H., Kevin and Whitney will present.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend! It will be quite a bit warmer next week.
Roger
From: Roger A Pielke Sr.
Sent: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:09:44 -0600 (MDT)
To: sp09
Subject: Thursday
Hi All, As a reminder, we will have two talks tomorrow (Stephanie E. and Gene). After the talks, we will have a discussion of the major findings from the class.
See you at 8am.
Roger
Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:36:50 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Friday's class
Hi All, Thanks again Stephanie for a very succinct and effective presentations on models today. As we discussed, please add the links (citation) for the papers you used in your talk. This will be an invaluable summary for anyone interested in atmospheric modeling.
Whitney - thank you also for the doughnuts for the class! This always helps with 8 am classes.
For tomorrow, we will have the four remaining talks, and will start at 9am as we decided on this morning. See all of you then.
Roger
Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 16:16:26 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Fwd: REMINDER: Hurricane Hugo 20th Anniversary Symposium - Call for Papers (fwd)
Hi All, FYI
Roger
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bernadette Hadnagy <bhadnagy@atcouncil.org>
Date: Apr 23, 2009 5:40 PM
Subject: REMINDER: Hurricane Hugo 20th Anniversary Symposium - Call for Papers
To: atc@atcouncil.org
Dear colleague,
I am pleased to advise that the Applied Technology Council (ATC) is organizing the *Hurricane Hugo 20th Anniversary Symposium on Building Safer Communities - Improving Disaster Resilience*. The Symposium will be held in Charleston, South Carolina on October 22-23, 2009. Technical sessions are planned on the following topics:
· The possible consequences of constructing buildings at the coast;
· Current tools of the design, planning and building professions for successful coastal construction;
· Current status of coastal disaster loss reduction capabilities and approaches;
· Needed research and tools for improving disaster resilience.
* *
*Call for Abstract Information*: Persons interested in presenting a paper on one of the specified topics (see Preliminary Program in the attached announcement) should submit a one-page abstract not to exceed 200 words no later than *April 30, 2009*, to ATC (e-mail, atc@ATCouncil.org; fax, 650-593-2320). Selected authors will be notified by June 18, 2009. Final papers (12 pages in length, maximum) will be due October 5, 2009.
In addition to participating in the *Symposium*, exhibit opportunities are also available. Exhibitor information, and other information about the * Symposium*, is available in the attached brochure and online at http://www.atcouncil.org/rel030109.shtml
If you would like to participate, exhibit, and/or co-sponsor the event, or to support the *Symposium* in other ways, please contact Bill Coulbourne, ATC Director of Wind and Flood Hazard Mitigation (302-227-6918 or
bcoulbourne@atcouncil.org) or me. For your information, current (non-financial) co-sponsors are:
· NOAA Coastal Services Center
· Structural Engineers Association of South Carolina
· The Citadel
Thank you for your consideration.
Sincerely,
Bernadette Hadnagy
*Operations Manager, Conference Coordinator
*Applied Technology Council
201 Redwood Shores Pkwy, Suite 240
Redwood City, CA 94065 USA
Phone, 650/595-1542
Fax, 650/593-2320
E-mail: bhadnagy@ATCouncil.org
Web & OnLine Store
Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:38:12 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr
To: sp09
Subject: Class
Hi All, Thank you again for an excellent class. I was very pleased with all of your presentations and your interactions in class!
Dallas will look for your powerpoints and she will post on our class website when you send to her.
With Best Regards, Roger
Class Presentations:
Doss, Whitney, 2009: Applications of Stable Isotope Geochemistry in Tropical Cyclone Research: Hurricanes as Fractionation Chambers with a “Paleo- Perspective”, April 24, 2009.
Evan, Stephanie, 2009: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models. April 23, 2009.
Higgins, Stephanie, 2009: Moist Processes: Modeling the Roles of Cumulus Convection and Sea Spray in Determining Hurricane Intensity. April 24, 2009.
Longenecker, Gene, 2009: Evaluating Hurricane Intensity Intensity-Based Losses Using HAZUS HAZUS-MH. April 23, 2009.
Sharp, Kevin, 2009: Climatic Oscillations and their Influence on Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin. April 24, 2009.
Current Related Literature:
Abbot, D. S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: A tropical and subtropical land-sea-atmosphere drought oscillation mechanism. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4458-4466.
Baker, A.K., M.D. Parker, and M.D. Eastin, 2008: Environmental ingredients for supercells and tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Bell, M. M., and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Observed structure, evolution and potential intensity of category 5 hurricane Isabel (2003) from 12 -14 September. Mon Wea. Rev., In Press.
Bender, M.A., I. Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3965–3989.
Besonen, M. R., R. S. Bradley, M. Mudelsee, M. B. Abbott, and P. Francus, 2008: A 1,000-year, annually-resolved record of hurricane activity from Boston, Massachusetts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14705,
doi:10.1029/2008GL033950.
Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff , 2006: Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. of Applied Meteorology. 45:3, 399-415.
Brennan, M.J., C.C. Hennon, R.D. Knabb, 2008: The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Camargo, S.J., and A.G. Barnston, 2008: Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A, 59, 428-443.
Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel and A.H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834.
Cardone, V., 2009: HURRICANE METOCEAN HINDCASTING. 25th Minerals Management Information Transfer Meeting, New Orleans, LA, January 6-8, 2009.
Carlson, T. N., and J. M. Prospero, 1972: The large-scale movement of Saharan air outbreaks over the northern equatorial Atlantic. J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 283– 297.
Chang, P.L., B.J.D., Jou, and J. Zhang, 2008: An Algorithm for Tracking Eyes of Tropical Cyclones. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Chen, T.C., S.Y. Wang, M.C. Yen, and A.J. Clark, 2008: Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Chylek, P., and G. Lesins, 2008: Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22106, doi:10.1029/2008JD010036.
Comet Program, 2007-2009: Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, Chapter 5, 1st Edition, Version 1.3, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The source of this material is the COMET® Website at http://meted.ucar.edu/ of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), sponsored in part through cooperative agreement(s) with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC). ©1997-2009 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. All Rights Reserved.
Davis, C., W. Wang, S. S. Chen, Y. Chen, K. Corbosiero, M. DeMaria, J. Dudhia, G. Holland, J. Klemp, J. Michalakes, H. Reeves, R. Rotunno, and Q. Xiao, 2008: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1990-2005.
DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1994: A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 209–220.
DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 326-337.
DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2005: Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20:4, 531-543.
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2006: On the decay of tropical cyclone winds crossing narrow landmasses, J. Appl. Meteor., 45, 491-499.
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff and C. R. Sampson, 2007: Evaluation of long-term trend in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Meteor. Atmos Phy., 97, 19-28.
Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R., and Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2009. Do we need better predictions to adapt to changing climate? Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.
Dorst, N.M., 2007: The National Hurricane Research Project: 50 Years of Research, Rough Rides, and
Name Changes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, Issue 10, 1566- 1588.
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1566.
Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2008: Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, 8, 11149–11292, www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/11149/2008/
Eastin, M. D., W. M. Gray, and P. G. Black, 2005: Buoyancy of convective vertical motions in the inner core of intense hurricanes. Part I: General Statistics. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 188-208.
Eastin, M. D., W. M. Gray, and P. G. Black, 2005: Buoyancy of convective vertical motions in the inner core intense hurricanes. Part II: Case Studies. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 188-208.
Emanuel, K., 2007: Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation. J. Climate, 20, 5497-5509.
Emanuel, K., 2008: The Hurricane-Climate Connection. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, ES10-ES20.
Emanuel, K., J. Callaghan, and P. Otto, 2008: A hypothesis for the re-development of warm-core cyclones over northern Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3863-3872.
Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc,, 89, 347-367.
2006: New evidence for a relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and African dust outbreaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19813, doi:10.1029/2006GL026408.
Fita, L., R. Romero, A. Luque, K. Emanuel and C. Ramis, 2007: Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 41–56.
Franklin, J.L., S.J. Lord, S.E. Feuer, and F.D. Marks, 1993: The Kinematic Structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) Determined from Nested Analyses of Dropwindsonde and Doppler Radar Data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2433–2451.
Frappier, A., T. Knutson, K.-B. Liu, and K. Emanuel, 2007: Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling. Tellus A, 59, 529-537.
Gray, W.M., 1973: Feasibility of beneficial hurricane modification by carbon dust seeding. Atmospheric Science Paper 196, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 129 pp plus appendices.
Grossman, I., with M.G. Morgan, 2008: Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, and Scientific Uncertainty: What do we know, what does it mean, what should be done? CLIMATE DECISION MAKING CENTER, Report NSF SES-034578, 61 pp.
Grossman, I., and M.G. Morgan, 2009: Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, and Scientific Uncertainty: What do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done? Climatic Change, submitted.
Harrison, S, and D. Stainforth, 2009: Predicting climate change: Lessons from reductionism, emergence, and the past. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 31 March.
Hasling, J., 2009: WRC HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE. GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANES: PAST – PRESENT – FUTURE. MMS ITM, January 6, 2009.
Karyampudi, V.M., and H.F. Pierce, 2002: Synoptic-scale influence of the Saharan air layer on tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3100–3128.
Knaff, J.A., 2009: Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones. Int. J. Climatology., published early on line, 11pp. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1746
Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2007: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships. Weather Forecasting, 22:1, 71–88.
Knaff, J.A., C. R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T. P. Marchok, J. M. Gross, and C. J. McAdie, 2007: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence, Wea. Forecasting, 22:4, 781–791.
Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 23:1, 17-28.
Knapp, K.R., M.C. Kruk, D.H . Levinson, and E.J. Gibney, 2009: Archive Compiles New Resource for Global Tropical Cyclone Research. Eos, 90:6, 46-47.
Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, I.M. Held and R.E. Tuleya, 2007: Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-Grid regional model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1549–1565. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1549
Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi, and I.M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience 1, 359 - 364. FAQ
Korty, R. L., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: The dynamic response of the winter stratosphere to an equable climate surface temperature gradient. J. Climate, 20, 5213-5228.
Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, and J. R. Scott, 2008: Tropical cyclone-induced upper-ocean mixing and climate: Application to equable climates. J. Climate, 21, 638-654.
Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22:1, 89–101.
Landsea, C., 2006: Towards a National Agenda for Hurricane Science and Engineering:Academic Perspectives Academic Research Perspectives, National Science Board Workshop, April 18, 2006.
Landsea, C.W., 2007: Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900. Eos Trans. AGU, 88(18), doi:10.1029/2007EO180001
Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454.
LaRow, T.E., Y.K. Lim, D.W. Shin, E. Chassignet and S. Cocke, 2008: Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations. J. Climate, 21, 3191-3206.
Lawrence, J. R., Gedzelman, S.D., Gamache, J. Black, M., 2002: Stable isotope ratios of precipitation collected at 3km elevation in Hurricane Olivia (1994). J. Atmos. Chem., 41, 67-82.
Lowag, A., M. L. Black, and M. D. Eastin, 2008: Structure and intensity changes of Hurricane Bret (1999). Part I: Environmental Influences, Monthly Weather Review, 136, 4320-4333.
Luo, Z., G. L. Stephens, K. A. Emanuel, D. G. Vane, N. Tourville, and J. M. Haynes, 2008: On the use of CloudSat and MODIS data for estimating hurricane intensity. IEEE Geoscience Remote Sensing Lett., 5, 13-16.
Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, and G. Goni, 2008: Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 23:1, 3-16.
Mann, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland, and P. J. Webster, 2007: Atlantic tropical cyclones revisited. EOS, 88, 349-350. Copyright 2007, American Geophysical Union.
Marks Jr., F.D., and R. Houze, 1987: Inner core structure of Hurricane Alicia from airborne Doppler radar observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1296-1317.
McCloskey, T.A., and G. Keller, 2008: 5000 year sedimentary record of hurricane strikes on the central coast of Belize. Quaternary International, doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.03.003
McCloskey, T.A., and J.T. Knowles, 2008: Migration of the tropical cyclone zone throughout the Holocene. In: Hurricanes and Climate Change, J.B. Elsner and T.H. Jagger, Eds., 61-72, Springer.
McTaggart-Cowan, R., G.D. Deane, L.F. Bosart, C.A. Davis, and T.J. Galarneau, 2008: Climatology of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic (1948-2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1284-1304.
Musgrave, K. D., C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Numerical simulations of the formation of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3151–3167. .
Nguyen, V. S., R. K. Smith, and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in three dimensions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134-632, pp. 563-582.
Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative–convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.
Pasquero, C., and K. Emanuel, 2008: Tropical cyclones and transient upper-ocean warming. J. Climate, 21, 149-162.
Powell, M.D., E.W. Uhlhorn, and J.D. Kepert, 2008: Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Pratt, A.S., and J.L. Evans, 2008: Potential Impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on Numerical Model Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Rappaport, E.N., J.L. Franklin, L.A. Avila, S.R. Baig, J.L. Beven, et al. 2008: Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Reasor, P.D., M.T. Montgomery, F.D. Marks, and J.F. Gamache, 2000: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution of the Hurricane Inner Core Observed by Airborne Dual-Doppler Radar. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1653–1680.
Reasor, P. D., M. D. Eastin, and J. F. Gamache, 2009: Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low wavenumber structure and evolution. Monthly Weather Review, In Press
Rhome, J.R., 2007: Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models. National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, 14 pp.
Rozoff, C. M., Kossin, J. P., W. H. Schubert, and P. Mulero, 2009: Internal control of hurricane intensity variability: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 133--147.
Sampson, C.R., J.L. Franklin, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Experiments with a Simple Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 304–312.
Schubert, W. H., C. M. Rozoff, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2007: On the distribution of subsidence in the hurricane eye. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 595--605.
Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2008: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Weather and Forecasting: In Press
Sharp, K., 2007: Tropical Cyclones and Americas Coastal Population, Senior Honors Thesis, Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, 42 pp.
Shepherd, J. M. and T. Knutson, 2007: The current debate on the linkage between global warming and hurricanes. Geography Compass, 1(1), 1-24.
Smith, R. K. and M. T. Montgomery, 2008: Balanced boundary layers used in hurricane models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 1385–1395.
Swanson, K.L., 2008: Non-locality of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q04V01, doi:10.1029/2007GC001844.
Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2007: Evaluation of GFDL and Simple Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms. Weather and Forecasting, 22:1, 56–70.
Terwey, W. D. and M. T. Montgomery, 2007: Secondary eyewall formation in two idealized, full-physics modeled hurricanes. Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres, 113,
Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity, Nature, 450, 1066-1071, www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature06423
2007: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2008: On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 21, 3580–3600.
Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden, 2008: Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 322 (5902), 687. [DOI:10.1126/science.1164396]
Wang, C., and S.-K. Lee, 2008: Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032396.
Wang, C., S.-K. Lee, and D. B. Enfield, 2008: Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q05V03, doi:10.1029/2007GC001809.
Willoughby, H., D. Jorgensen, R. Black, and S. Rosenthal, 1985: Project STORMFURY: A Scientific Chronicle 1962–1983. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 505–514.
Wong, V., and K. Emanuel, 2007: Use of cloud radars and radiometers for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12811, doi:10.1029/2007GL029960.
Woodruff, J. D., J. P. Donnelly, K. Emanuel, and P. Lane, 2008: Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
Zehr, R.M., and J.A. Knaff, 2007: Atlantic major hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics based on best track, aircraft, and IR images. J. of Climate, 20, 5865-5888.
Zhang H., G. M. McFarquhar, S. M. Saleeby, W. R. Cotton, 2007: Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14812, doi:10.1029/2007GL029876.
This information was taken from the MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY, SEPTEMBER, 2008
PREPARED BY Gary Padgett and Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_hurricane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season
The official storm reports for some of the individual cyclones are already available on TPC/NHC's website at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008atlan.shtml
The extremely detailed online Wikipedia report on Hurricane Ike may be accessed at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ike
This report contains many links to other sources of information. A graphic depicting Ike's storm-total rainfall may be found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/ike2008.html
The official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane Ike is not yet available, but additional information may be found at the following link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/tws/MIATWSAT_nov.shtml?
The online Wikipedia report on Tropical Storm Josephine may be found at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Josephine_(2008)
The online Wikipedia report on Hurricane Kyle may be found at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kyle_(2008)
A graphic depicting rainfall triggered in Puerto Rico by the pre-Kyle disturbance may be found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/kyle2008.html
The online Wikipedia report on Tropical Storm Laura may be found at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Laura_(2008)
The official storm reports on both Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell are already available on TPC/NHC's website at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008epac.shtml
The online Wikipedia report on Tropical Storm Karina may be found at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Karina_(2008)
An online Wikipedia report containing information about the Midwest floods may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Midwest_floods
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen.
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The link to the site is:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/
Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage which is very user-friendly:
http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Notes from Dr. Pielke:
If you qualify for accommodations because of a disability, please submit to me a letter from Disability Services in a timely manner so that your needs may be addressed. Disability Services determines accommodations based on documented disabilities. Contact: 303-492-8671, Willard 322, and http://www.Colorado.EDU/disabilityservices
Students and faculty each have responsibility for maintaining an appropriate learning environment. Those who fail to adhere to such behavioral standards may be subject to discipline. Professional courtesy and sensitivity are especially important with respect to individuals and topics dealing with differences of race, culture, religion, politics, sexual orientation, gender, gender variance, and nationalities. Class rosters are provided to the instructor with the student's legal name. I will gladly honor your request to address you by an alternate name or gender pronoun. Please advise me of this preference early in the semester so that I may make appropriate changes to my records. See policies at http://www.colorado.edu/policies/classbehavior.html and at http://www.colorado.edu/studentaffairs/judicialaffairs/code.html#student_code
The University of Colorado at Boulder policy on Discrimination and Harassment, the University of Colorado policy on Sexual Harassment and the University of Colorado policy on Amorous Relationships apply to all students, staff and faculty. Any student, staff or faculty member who believes s/he has been the subject of discrimination or harassment based upon race, color, national origin, sex, age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, or veteran status should contact the Office of Discrimination and Harassment (ODH) at 303-492-2127 or the Office of Judicial Affairs at 303-492-5550. Information about the ODH, the above referenced policies and the campus resources available to assist individuals regarding discrimination or harassment can be obtained at http://www.colorado.edu/odh
All students of the University of Colorado at Boulder are responsible for knowing and adhering to the academic integrity policy of this institution. Violations of this policy may include: cheating, plagiarism, aid of academic dishonesty, fabrication, lying, bribery, and threatening behavior. All incidents of academic misconduct shall be reported to the Honor Code Council (honor@colorado.edu; 303-725-2273). Students who are found to be in violation of the academic integrity policy will be subject to both academic sanctions from the faculty member and non-academic sanctions (including but not limited to university probation, suspension, or expulsion). Other information on the Honor Code can be found at http://www.colorado.edu/policies/honor.html and at http://www.colorado.edu/academics/honorcode/
Campus policy regarding religious observances requires that faculty make every effort to reasonably and fairly deal with all students who, because of religious obligations, have conflicts with scheduled exams, assignments or required attendance. A comprehensive calendar of the religious holidays most commonly observed by CU-Boulder students is at http://www.interfaithcalendar.org/ If you have a religious conflict with a scheduled class or exam, please contact Dr. Pielke Sr. as soon as possible (try to give 2 weeks advance notice) to reschedule.
Nondiscrimination Policy • Legal and Trademarks |
216 UCB